Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Analysis: What does it all mean? Candidates "FREEZE" their efforts.

After a strategy that would have been brilliant if it worked, Rudy Giuliani, "America's Mayor", is expected to end his presidential campaign today and endorse John McCain. Who benefits? Who loses?

After focusing on Iowa and not winning, continuing has campaign, but failing to win a state, John Edwards vowed to fight on to the convention. Today he is expected to drop out of the campaign. Who benefits? Who loses?

Forget the popcorn, get your seatbelt! Here we go...

Things to look forward to:
1. A Giuliani endorsement of John McCain
2. A Rush Limbaugh appearance for McCain?
3. Conservatives rationalize that McCain will be more conservative than Clinton or Obama?
4. A smaller debate field on Wednesday and Thursday night (head to head!)
5. The fight for an Edwards endorsement
6. An opening for Michael Bloomberg to get into the race? (Conservatives don't like McCain, Liberals don't all like Clinton--enter an Independent)?


joannaz said...

What a day.
With Giuliani dropping out of the race and endorsing McCain and with John Edwards annoucing that his campagin is ending soon the race should get a little more interesting. Its basically a two person race on both sides now, and I think more and more Republicans are warming up to McCain. McCain is probably the Republican's best bet in a national election, so I think people are starting to forgive him for his views on immigration and McCain-Feingold etc. But even then, McCain isn't the "maverick" he was in his former years. He seems to be more and more conservative in his views each year and seems to have lost the spark of his former years.
Now its going to be a dogfight between Obama and Clinton on the Dem's side. I remembered hearing rumors of a possible Attorney General spot for Edwards if he joins the Obama camp but you never know. I can see Edwards endorsing Obama more than I can see him endorsing Clinton, but I have been wrong before. Even though Edwards has dropped out of the race, I'm still glad he was in it. Edwards was a completely different candidate this time around than in 2004. In 2004 he was running as a moderate Senator in his first term and by 2007 he made all the Democrats focus on more progressive policy issues. Edwards was the first of all the candidates to offer a plan for universal health care, he constantly emphasized that lobbyists have too much power in Washington, and even was the first to call on Congress to pull funding for the war. Even Mitt Romney started talking about ending special interest politics in Washington. I think Edward's loss in South Carolina was especially hard for him, since had won it in 2004 and it was his home state. I also think it's good that Edwards made poverty a major issue in both of his presidential campaigns.
Now it seems the races will get more brutal, more bitter, and maybe more interesting. Anyone else excited for February 5th?

Mr. Bretzmann said...

"I think its long due for a talk about a conservative something"

Does a McCain/Giuliani discussion count? :)

I don't think a Giuliani endorsement is going to help John McCain, but it won't hurt either. Does it help McCain to get the endorsement from a liberal or moderate Republican who counts as his strong points that he is a fighter of terrorism? Seems like the same demographic that McCain is already winning easily. Now, that is not to say that the Giuliani voters won't vote for McCain. What I mean is that they would probably go to McCain anyway. Where else is a pro-choice, anti-terror, indepedent-minded Republican going to go? Huckabee, Romney, Paul? Unlikely. So I think that the Giuliani 4% of voters will head over to McCain with or without a Giuliani endorsement. (To get even more specific: If Rudy campaigns for McCain in NY, NJ and parts of CA it could help him more than 4 percent in those states).

Mr. Bretzmann said...

1. The Edwards dropping out of the race is a HUGE deal. It's a big shakeup right before the most important day in the primaries. Where do Edwards supporters go? Will they have enough time to RE-decide their choice?

2. Robert Novak "broke the story" that Edwards would be an attorney general nominee in an Obama administration which made many conservatives go crazy. The reports were that some conservatives were more concerned about him being AG than being president! Novak has a bit of a reputation as a conservative who breaks stories that are not helpful to Democrats and more importantly: are not true. So who knows if he just made it up or not.

3. More significant than Rudy dropping out of the race is what Huckabee will do (although McCain will probably get Rudy's lists: lists are important in politics because they put you in touch with donors and potential voters- think about people with money in NY- "hi Rudy told me to call you, can you give me $2300?"). If Huckabee stays in through Superduper Tuesday could he take enough votes from Romney in places like Georgia, Tennessee, Arkansas, and others to give McCain a large victory in terms of delegates won on Superduper Tuesday? Huckabee and Romney are the last two left competing for the solid conservative/Evangelical vote. If he drops out before Tuesday will that give Romney the chance to regroup and win enough to reclaim the momentum? Will Rush Limbaugh be able to rally the troops around Romney? Will Romney's attacks get sharp and nasty? Will he ask McCain at tonight's debate why McCain abandoned his "Straight Talk Express" and instead lied about Romney's position on Iraq? Will Huckabee stay in the race with the objective of helping McCain in hopes of being on the ticket in the future? Makes you want to head to the Reagan Library in CA and check it out.

Vlad said...

These sub-zero days are the best days. I watched John Edwards' departure speech from NOLA (possibly my future home) and it was a bit sad to see him go. I feel bad for him because he spent so much time on his campaign to lose in SC, get backstabbed by John Kerry, and get made fun of by Obama at the debates "and John". But I also heard him say that he is "suspending" his run so we'll probably hear more from him. I didn't like the message of his campaign, though (two Americas). When I watched President Bush's State of the Union, I saw Hill Clinton sitting next to and talking to Joe Biden. Could this relationship foreshadow Biden becoming her VP?

JamieW said...


I was all excited to come and post. I'm curently watching the news and I heard that Giuliani droped out of the race and heard about his endorsement of John McCain. I figured I could come and post something about it.... but people beat me to it.

Oh well, I still have my popcorn.

JamieW said...

I forgot to mention that Edwards dropped out. Woah. This is huge. The Democrats will bring to the table and African American or a woman. How exciting!

katiekso said...

It was a smart move by Edwards to drop out of the race because not only was he not winning any primaries and now both of the Democratic candidates left owe him. His dropping out now splits the delegates two ways instead of three and it seems like it was the noble thing to do to help the Democratic Party. However, I'm sure he has more of a motive than that. I think he is going to support one of these two campaigns, bring his voters with him, and try to gain a position like attorney general or another cabinet position. I wasn't at all surprised that Giuliani dropped out because his entire campaign strategy was to win Florida and when he didn't there was nowhere he could go but down. He had to drop out, he had no back-up plan, all ha had talked about was winning Florida, taking that momentum and winning big on Super Tuesday. So, I feel that Edwards dropping out was a more significant even than Giuliani dropping out. I also think that where Edwards goes will create a lot more support for the candidate he endorses than Giuliani will for McCain.

JamieW said...

Yesterday I was at the grocery store, and I overheard a woman saying how Edwards was going to win. I looked at her funny because I knew that he had dropped out of the race. She seemed overjoyed that he was running for office and was determined that he was going to win. It wasn't until her daughter, who must have been around 14 told her mother that Edwards dropped out of the race. I was thrilled that this 14 year old knew more about the presidential election than her mother. It proves the point that just because you're ABLE to vote, doesn't necessarily mean you KNOW what is going on. :-)

Johnny B said...

What are you more excited about? Super Bowl or Super Tuesday?
Super Bowl 46% 57503
Super Tuesday 54% 66433

That was from which I found to be interesting. I, for one, voted Super Tuesday. :]

But about the Candidates freezing their efforts, this is how I take it. The main freeze was between Obama and Clinton. During the debate, everything was pretty calm. They decided to stick to the issues rather than hurting eachother. Clinton seems to be in the lead for most national polls so she probably feels that she should just keep that up while Obama has been gaining some points so he figures he should keep that up.

Vlad said...

I posted on Wednesday.

MorganJ said...

I like the poll that Johnny B shared with us. Right now, my mom and my brother are watching the Superbowl (components of the 46%) and I'm trying to get a jump start on some homework so I can watch Super Tuesday (go 54%!). I think this is the week where front runners start to emerge (especially between Hillary and Barack).

I'm just curious about one thing, I would appreciate the commentary from the other AP Gov students.

With this presidential race, I keep feeling that the Dems are going to come out victorious (media attention is focused on Hilary and Barack). With that being said, does anyone feel that the Reps have a change in this race??? This may be a dumb question but it's been on my mind lately.

cmorgan said...

Mafia kingpin(haha joke!)Rudy Giuliani's strategy was a far-fetched, astronomical notion... that worked as well as George Bush's plan in Iraq. Which as most can see, was not very effective. So him dropping out of the race was fairly predictable. John Edwards' decision to end his campaign on the other hand was big. His supporters going to the other candidates could greatly effect the upcoming primary. So with this recent jumble(not to sure if thats a word), tuesday should be an exciting day.

Angelina said...

Now that Giuliani dropped out I don't think he will make a difference, while in endorsing McCain. In general Giuliani did not seem to have too many followers, especially in the polls. I think he picked to support McCain because he is doing well in the polls, or he likes McCain's wife and is looking for a marriage number four.

On the Democrats side, it's cool because it's history in the making. American has never had a potential woman president or African American president. Two minorities competing to become the democrat nominee. History right there.

CassieH said...

I love when older people don't know what they are talking about. It always seem to split things in age groups. I don't really think age matters when it comes to being ignorant. Some how we get looked down at as stupid voter or stupid anything. But stupid people come in all ages. :)

ericag said...

Well i've been looking at this blog for about an hour... i got very distracted by the fact that the Giants just won the superbowl. I agree McCain's drop out was important.... and to Morgan's question about Rep. I honestly don't think that a rep will get elected to prez office... although my dad surely thinks they will, but as I have expressed in class my dad is kinda coocoo

aly mac said...

I really don't think that Giuliani's endorsement of McCain would really help him at all. He seemed to have little support and I can't see too many of his followers making a huge difference in poll numbers. However, it won't hurt McCain, really only help him.
Edward’s decision to drop out I believe will make a significant change in the democratic side of the election. I personally feel a lot of his support will shift to Obama. It should be interesting to see how everything pans out on Super Tuesday.

Mr. Bretzmann said...

1. Be nice to your dad. Go thank him right now for all the great opportunities he has given you so far in your life!
2. In 1992 I asked George McGovern if the Democrats should just give up because there was no way they were going to beat an incumbent president with high popularity ratings who had just won a war in the Persian Gulf. He told me that there are good candidates who will run and they will work hard in a campaign to get elected. It's why we have campaigns. Anything can happen. McCain will be the nominee and he will do everything he can to get elected. He's not just going to say, "Well, it seems like the country wants the Democrats this year, I think I'll go drink some warm milk and go to bed." Somehow I don't think he'll give up (...POW over 5 years etc.)

ericag said...

well i did thank my dad... he drove all the way home from mad-town today, because i was dying from some stupid sickness i got...

but i also think that people like my father who just vote rep. just because they are rep. is the same as people just voting for women. (which for some reason the class fliped on me for.)

until i see some rep. getting more media attention, i just dont see how they can win... i know we have a loooonnnng time til elections. but dems are getting a lot more attention