Sunday, January 06, 2008

Analysis or Opinion: Dem or GOP Presidential Nominating Process: Your thoughts...

Holy Cow! The excitement. Romney spent millions of dollars in Iowa and didn't win. Huckabee and McCain have ganged up on him to make sure that in addition to losing to Huckabee in Iowa he will lose to McCain in New Hampshire. They must figure he'll get out then and it will be a two-person race (not including Thompson who is from TN who might compete in South Carolina and not incluiding Giuliani's Feb. 5 Super Tuesday strategy of lose all the early states and then win a bunch in the "national primary"). Huckabee got a bump of only 1% in the NH polls, but McCain got about a 4% bump and now leads in NH where Romney was a neighboring governor (and he owns a vacation home there).

Holy Cow! The excitement. Clinton spent a lot of money (and raised a lot of money) and came in third in Iowa. Edwards spent essentially the last six years in Iowa and came in second. An African-American former community organizer from the south side of Chicago won in almost all-White Iowa (98%). Edwards says it's a two-person race now. He says it's a race between the forces of change (Obama, Edwards) and the status quo (Clinton) is over. He actually has called for a debate between just him and Obama! Obama got a bump in the NH polls of 3% and is now tied with Clinton while Edwards trails. Change is the word of the day, week, and year! The amazing thing is that Clinton has been defined as NOT the candidate of change. Who could have predicted that 6 months ago!
(btw: WI Governor Jim Doyle just endorsed Obama as did former presidential candidate Bill Bradley).


P.S. Governor Huckabee has indicated he can't come to MHS next month. Hopefully he doesn't have an "arrogant and bunker mentality." :)


Vlad said...

Here are my predictions for NH:

: :Democrats: :
1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards
4. Richardson
5. Fringe

: :Republicans: :
1. Romney
2. Huckabee (Hucka-bay)
3. McCain
4. Giuliani
5. Fringe

I also think people shouldn't be counting Giuliani out of the race because we have yet to see his strategy. I don't think Edwards should be so arrogant to think it's a 2 person race. And with Huckabay, he should see how he does in a state that's not dominated with evangelical christians.

MorganJ said...

Who's going to win NH? After watching some of the debates, I believe Clinton and Romney will dominate his/her specific party. It seemed that the other candidates where targeting these two runners because they are the biggest threats.

Lately, a few consensuses are floating around the race. One being change, another being mudslinging. Richardson and his hostage comment last night gave a brief halt to the bickering of the other democrats, and I believe is was Romney (is could have been Huckabee) who said in order for anything to get accomplished, the candidates need to stop arguing and let the people choose base off of ideas—not who is better at arguing.

katiekso said...

I was very surprised at the outcome in Iowa. For the republicans i thought that Guiliani was going to do a lot better than he did. I didn't necessarily think he would win but I didn't think he would take 6th. Also, Huckabee did better than I predicted. For the Democrats I personally was very excited that Clinton didn't win and that Obama did.

Also, I recieved an email from the Obama campaign saying he won't be able to make it. However, I also recieved an email from the Kucinich campaign scheduler saying that she will request a surrogate speaker for Feb. 14th for us.

CarolineB said...

I loved Iowa. It certianly showed that young people with a vision on the democratic side have a LOT more power than was expected...the media kept referring to Obama as the young, hip, celebrity candidate with nothing much more than those aspects to offer, but they have been left speechless because his vision truly made a splash. I love it.

As for the republicans....(yawn)
Poor Mitt. That's a lesson in money management...
Huckabee's a crazy little man who pulled out a win from somewhere...
and McCain, well, he does have quite a lot of experience but I think he's quite simply too old to run a country that is focused on creating NEW jobs and NEW attitutes and NEW healthcare. But quite frankly, if a republican HAS to be my president, I'd vote for Mitt.
The nominating process FURTHER underlines my boring statement about the republicans. What do they do? The expected. They punch a hole, or mark a box. Nothing special.
Democrats, however, get up and move around! They walk around and talk and exchange ideas and compromise....I'd love to take part in an election like that, sign me up!

btw, mr bretzmann, I love your internet lingo. It definitly makes me want to post more...I feel at home when you put the first letters of words together to create a phrase :)

Mr. Bretzmann said...

What the polls are really good for: Tim Russert said that if you're supporting a Democrat and over 50 you support Clinton. If you're supporting a Democrat and under 50 you support Obama.

More women support Romney. McCain is supported by Independents by a 2to 1 margin over Romney in NH.

shannond said...

In class on Friday, our group was talking about this. The results on the GOP side suprised me more than the Democratic side. Ron Paul got 10% of the Republican vote?! What?! That seems outrageously high for a man with some pretty outgrageous ideas. (Withdraw from NATO?)I was really suprised that Guiliani didn't wasn't even in the top 5 even after all the attention he recieved in Republican debates. But like Vlad said, we can't count Guiliani out until we see how his strategy works out. As for the Democrats, I'm not suprised at all that Obama won. I figured that HILLARY Clinton would have been second but I guess a one percent margin isn't that big of a deal. Because every candidate has a different strategy, I really don't think we can count anybody who placed top 5 (or 6 in Guiliani's case) out of the race except for Ron Paul because he doesn't have a chance. After all, out of the last 6 elections, only 3 of the party winners ending up becoming president. Anyway, when it comes to the Iowa Caucuses, anything can happen.

shannond said...

And one more thing, who IS coming to MHS on Feb. 14th?

arletap said...

The Iowa caucus...boy, oh boy.
I must admit, some of the results surprised me. Clinton and Edwards head to head? Huckabee passing by Romney?

I can't wait for NH: Personally, I don't think Clinton has a chance to recover from her third place position from IA, and it will just be downhill from there.

Regarding the Republican race, I can't wait to see what happens. My money's on McCain, yet, if he were to win, I'm not sure what effect it would have on the rest of his campaign; I think Huckabee's glory from IA will be shortlived. And Guiliani? I don't really see that bright of a future for him, but we'll see what happens.

Vlad said...

Revision to my list: McCain should be #2.

aly mac said...

I think that it is still way too early to judge who is going to win the Democratic or Republican nominee. Before I am really going to make any predictions I want to see how it all pans out in South Carolina and on Super Tuesday. Obama, I have to say, seems to be a definite leader on the democratic side, however the republican side really seems up for grabs. We haven't even seen much of Giuliani's plan of action carried out yet. It is still too early, in my opinion to make any calls.

CassieH said...

In Iowa I wasn't too suprised with the republicans

On the other hand the Democrats shocked me.

In NH I think the republicans won't change much. I think Giuliani might do better. On the Democrat side I think Clinton will take it.

PS. I really enjoyed the Tivo'd item we watched Thursday and Friday :) More More

JamieW said...

Ahh yes, I forgot about the blog.

I was pleased with the outcome of Iowa. I am a fan of both Obama and Huckabee. Hmm, in terms of my thoughts on the complete outcome I feel that Clinton probably got a reality check when she finished third. I think she thought she'd do a lot better. The outcome doesn't mean much but her nose is probably bent out of shape. Sorry for those who like her. I strongly agree with Caroline that the young population is going to begin impacting the election more than before. Go Obama :-)

Johnny B said...

I'm pretty happy with how Iowa turned out.

On the democrat side, I'm glad Obama took first. What I find especially interesting is how Edwards beat Clinton. Now I'm interested in what N.H. will bring. I just read a poll that said that Obama has a 10% lead on Clinton in N.H.

On the Republican side, it was interesting. I'm glad that Huckabee took first. After watching Romney in the debates, he seems like a jerk. His remarks weren't very 'presidential' to me.

I'm looking forward to N.H..

Jake_H said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Jake_H said...

I think that Obama will win in NH followed closely by Clinton. Edwards might want to watch what he says. I dont think that it is a two person race just yet. As for the GOP I believe that it will be a very close race between Romney and Huckabee. I dont think that Giuliani's master plan will help him. If you take almost last in the early stages, most Americans will count you down and out and vote for some one else.

CarolineB said...

Do you think Clinton gains respect/support from older voters because they remember more specifically what she did as first lady when younger voters were fairly young and most likely not following politics at that age?

Or, is the younger demographic just more drawn to the "Change" theme of Obama?

joannaz said...

All I can say is i'm pretty exited for New Hampshire tomorrow.
My predictions:
Edwards (definately not as close as iowa)


Obama will probably take New Hampshire because of all the independents (what is it, 40% or so?) I don't think Edwards will be as close as he was in Iowa, but you never know. I figured that he would have been trailing Hilary by at least 5%, but I guessed wrong.

McCain will have some luck in New Hampshire because of all the independents. I'm not positive but I believe he won quite decidely there in 2000 and he has a large support base there. I only hope that McCain wins by double digits over Romney. And thats the "straight talk."
I put Paul and Thompson ahead of Giuliani mostly because of my loftly hopes that Giuliani will be absolutely crushed in the all the first primaries and drop out of the race...

McCain said that if he wins the GOP nomination that he won't resort to negative campaigning or mudslinging. I seriously doubt that if he is nominated he won't run any negative campaigning against the Democratic nominee.

Oh and i'm still ecstatic over the win by Obama in Iowa. He is becoming even better at motivating young voters to come out and participate.

Alex the Great said...

I am happy with how the Iowa caucus turned out. I am pleased to see Obama in the lead and even more pleased to see hillary dropping to third. i was less concerned with the republican side, but still happy to see romney not in 1st.

newkirk said...

i liked the outcome of the iowa caucus. i am a supporter of obama and its good to see that hes in the lead. i really dont want clinton to win and i liked that she didnt even make 2nd. since this caucus is supposed to set the tone for the rest of the nation i hope it means that clinton will drop out.

Vlad said...

I've been thinking about the fringe candidates (on both sides) a lot and why they haven't pulled out of the race. Mr. Bretzmann said that they are in it to spark attention and bring out issues. Here's an interesting video from Mike Gravel (last in both Iowa and New Hampshire): Video (Youtube) I don't believe all of the claims he makes but his views are interesting.

RyanO said...

I'm kind of disappointed that the democrats won't be at Michigan b/c of the push up on the date. I was hoping to see how the candidates pair up in a bigger state. I think Michigan would be more of a measuring stick, because I would say it is a state that is more like the rest of the country in that it doesn't have almost half of the registered voters as independents (NH), or a voting process that is vastly different to any other state .

Jbyko10 said...

Well, after watching Iowa and NH, clearly this will be the closest presidential election we've ever had.

Clinton and Obama. Romney and McCain. My thoughts are that these four are going to be neck and neck with each other from here on out. No Huckabee. No Edwards.

I am very excited for the rest of this presidential campaign.

I last year predictions will be right. just you watch. Clinton Obama '08. Yes, they hate each other. But it is just a tactic. They need each other. They will be the unstoppable force in the campaign if they do so.

Jake_H said...

I am also disappointed that the dems won’t be coming to Michigan. I also wonder if the fact that they will not be there in the primary stage will hurt them in the general election. With only the republicans campaigning there it might hurt the dems.

Alex D said...

I need a blog so here is Alex Drifke's predictions on the race for the candidacy.

Hillary Clinton will win no matter how many students of our AP government class. I can see Obama winning maybe in 4 or 8 years but this simply will not be his election, Hillary is ahead in to many states and is again gaining to much momentum to lose the race.

Little did I ever believe it would happen but John McCain will win the conservative ticket. He has basically the same reasoning as Hillary and the conservatives want a candidate that can win.

pending the vp ticket if it is McCain vs. Cliinton McCain will win, if you believes the polls then McCain has shown that he will beat Clinton in that election...

Maybe it isn't such a bad year to be a conservative after all....