Thursday, March 29, 2012

FYI: Predictions on Congressional election outcomes in November (with a little inside baseball).

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-early-outlook-for-the-2012-congressional-elections-a-forecasting-perspective/rpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-early-outlook-for-the-2012-congressional-elections-a-forecasting-perspective/

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2012-house/




Larry Sabato is a well-respected political scientist and a co-author on the new textbook we'll be using in the fall of 2012.






12 comments:

KKotecki said...

My predictions for the Congressional election in November is that right now the Republicans hold a majority in the House and in the elections they will likely lose a few seats, but because they have a large majority, they should maintain control of the House. It appears that in the Senate, the Republicans may pick up a few seats and I think this will make the control for the Senate very close.

aschulist said...

I think Republicans will continue to hold a majority in the House after the elections, just maybe by a smaller margin. In the Senate, however, I do not think that much will change and I'm guessing that Democrats will keep most of their seats as well as the majority. I think that for both the House and Senate though it will depened a lot on how the presidential election is going and if Obama is significantly higher than the Republican candidate for a while, Democrats will probably keep/gain more seats and vice versa.

Mr. Bretzmann said...
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Mr. Bretzmann said...

Do you have any predictions for Tuesday's presidential primary in the great state of Wisconsin (or Maryland)? Any stories to tell (if you choose to share them)?

MBoster said...

I predict that Romney is going to win the Wisconsin Primary further distancing himself from Santorum, However, the only way he will lose is if people are sick of being called 6 times a day like myself:)

MBoster said...

I predict that Romney is going to win the Wisconsin Primary further distancing himself from Santorum, However, the only way he will lose is if people are sick of being called 6 times a day like myself:)

Chris DeWinter said...

I believe that the republicans will take over the Senate in the next congressional elections. The republicans only need to defend 10 seats while the democrats have to defend 25. I believe that the republicans will take the senate and retain the house because people are tired of obama doing nothing. I believe the people that voted for him and his friends did not know what the were going to do and know they feel they must stop him.
In the Wisconsin i also believe that Romney will win. Romney is the front runner right know and I think everyone believes he will win the primary. Romney has also received the support of Paul Ryan a well respected congress man in the area which should help him.

tFugarino said...

In the state of wisconsin i believe romney will win the primary. Right now he is the main guy for the republicans and getting later in the race i do not think anyone will overtake his top spot.

jboyle said...

I believe that the Republicans will continue to be the majority in the House and Senate. As for the presidential primary I believe Romney will win in the state of Wisconsin.

Kelly M said...

I believe that in November the party that wins the presidency will be the same party that has the majority in the house and senate. Because of the open seats, the party that gets the most supporters to the polls will win the majority due to the fact that the today, the country leans towards one party instead of a certain candidate. I predict Romney will win.

JakobL said...

I think the in the Senate the Democrats can hold the majority and the Republicans can hold theirs in the House if president Obama gets reelected. I am pretty sure that this is going to happen, because first Obama is able to raise a lot of money for his campaign and his approval rate is going up over the last few months and I think that will continue.

I could not make it to the speech of Mitt Romney here in Muskego, but I saw Santorum at TV speaking, comparing himself to Ronald Reagan. As a prediction I would say taht Romney is going to win in Wisconsin.

aspone said...

To answer Mr. Bretzmann's question... I think that Romney will win in Wisconsin. He seems to have more support compared to Santorum. This is mostly due to the endorsements he recieved from prominent Wisconsin Republicans including Paul Ryan.