Sunday, January 15, 2012

Predictions for South Carolina? (Cite the basis for your prediction?)

34 comments:

neve57 said...

I believe that Rick Santorum will come out on top even though he is low in the polls. My basis for this decision is backed by the fact that in an article I was reading, Santorum has the backing of many evangelical leaders in South Carolina.60 percent of voters in the South Carolina Republican primary identified themselves as born again or evangelical in 2008 according to the article. I think that this will give him a huge advantage being that the rest of the runners whom have vulnerabilities.

Mr. Bretzmann said...

That seems logical neve57. It would be a more interesting race if you are correct!

RPochowski said...

I believe its going to be a very tight race in south carolina between Gingrich and Romney. Gingrich has been campaigning agressively in south carolina the last few weeks and has unleashed an attack on mitt romney but with back to back wins for romney its hard to go against him. Right now recent polls suggest that romney has a 4% lead on gingrich, but thats within their margin of error. Santorum will likely come in third cause the mass of evangelical christians within the state.

pliberski said...

Based on a web crawl through CNN, it looks like the top 3 contenders will be Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich. I feel that they will have very close margins. Who let the dogs out?

Chris DeWinter said...

I believe that Mitt Romney will come out on top in South Carolina because he has won Iowa and New Hampshire.
Romney seems to be the only candidate that is now focusing on President Obama and not just the other candidates.

J.Mason said...

I think that the primary in SC, will be an interesting one. Mitt Romney is suggested to win by the washington post. Amy Gardner said the the GOP canidates are "sharply divided and deeply uncertain about how to stop the front runnners march(Mitt Romney)to the GOP presidental nomiation." Gingrich is leading the attacks on Romney, followed by the rest. I think that it will be a rough race for everyone and the win can be for anyone.

Jegan said...

I feel that Romney will win South Carolina due to that fact that he is the front runner and has not seem to lose much steam even with his mistakes i also feel that newt gingrich will also have a good showing in SC because of his aggressive campaigning

bhlava said...

Well the huffington post has Gingrich at 25%, Santorum at 24%, Romney at 22%, paul at 9%, Huntsmen at 4%, Perry 4%. (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/11/nc-2012-primary-25-gingri_n_1199950.html)
but Realclearpolitics.com has Romney at 37%, Santorum 14%, Gingrich 13%, Paul 12%, Perry 5%, and Huntsmen 3%.
My predictions are Romney at 33%, Gingrich at 24%, Santorum at 23%, Paul 9%, Perry 6% and Huntsman 5%

Adam Joerres said...

My predictions for South Carolina are going to be less radical and more realistic than my predictions for New Hampshire. Based on the polls right now most reports have Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich as the main three. I do not see the outcome to be much different then their predictions. I believe Romney will hold a solid first and Santorum and Gingrich will be left to fight for second. In my opinion the other candidates can say bye to 2012.

Bmurph said...

I believe the top competetors for South Carolina are Romney Santorum and Gingrich. I also believe that Romney will once again come out on top.

jboyle said...

I believe that Romney will win in South Carolina due to the fact that he has won in Iowa and New Hampshire. Also while winning in these two states he seems to be gaining on his opponents slightly.

Jwolf said...

I think Mitt Romney will be on top in South Carolina. So far, he has won Iowa and New Hampshire which has a significant impact on the other candidates. Unless the other candidates are campaigning excessively in South Carolina, I believe Romney will be on top, with Gingrich close behind.

ANichols said...

In my opinion, from analyzing the first caucus in Iowa, and the first primary in New Hampshire, my prediction is the Mitt Romney will be a top South Carolina. I think this simply because he is the front runner. People who live in South Carolina and aren't too involved with politics will vote for Mitt Romney because they say, "hey I think you are pretty neat for being the front runner, and I respect you for that." On the other hand, I believe that Nut Gingrich will do very well in this election because in the recent elections he has shown that he is a strong candidate. Also, i think that he resides from South Carolina which will help him alot.

npaape said...

I believe Romney will be ahead in South Carolina. According to CNN Romney is the one to beat as he is ahead in a survey taken by this state as well as in Florida. I also believe Santorum and Gingrich will be up in the polls as according to CNN they want to show their stance as differing to President Obama which is what Conservatives are looking for.

aschulist said...

Based on an article from the Washington Post, I think that Mitt Romney will end up winning again. I also think that Santorum could do well there, but Gringich is campaigning a lot. Otherwise, I think it’s hard to predict what will happen. It could definitely fluctuate from what the polls are currently saying.

aschulist said...

Based on an article from the Washington Post, I think that Mitt Romney will end up winning again. I also think that Santorum could do well there, but Gringich is campaigning a lot. Otherwise, I think it’s hard to predict what will happen. It could definitely fluctuate from what the polls are currently saying.

Kelly M said...

I believe that it will be very close between Romney and Santorum but, in the end Romney will come out on top.

TPassow said...

My opinion on the South Carolina polls will be that Gingrich will come out on top, with his high polling totals he has the best chance, according to the New York Times. Next I would have Santorum, he has the support of the evangelical leaders in that state. Romney being the front runner, with high poll amounts, would come next, in my opinion. Also from the New York Times was that Huntsman states that he is dropping out of the race, so I believe that he will have little to no polling.

Big Al said...

I think that Huntsman dropping out of the race to endorce Romney will sky rocket romenys chances in south carolina. Cnn gave me the breaking news on Huntsman. A poll on cnn showed romney going up 12% in favorbal polls to 69% and tied for second with 49% is santorum and gingrich and then paul with 47%. Gingrich has been dropping in the pools so i feel that he will take fourth. I think that santorum will just be behind paul for third. Paul in second and Romney winning. With the first three under romneys belt he should succesfully fall in line as bretzmann calls the Republicans party history. Perry was not mentioned, because i feel he will drop out or not make a differnce in many voters mind to take over 2%

aspone said...

I think that Romney will win in South Carolina with Santorum and Gingrich close behind. I do not think Romney is a conservative enough candidate to win by a large margin in this primary.

APrichard said...

Based on the fact that Rick Santorum upholds most of the ideals promoted by republicans within the state, it would become quite evident that he may then be a front runner in this state over Mitt Romney the current front runner. Although Mitt Romney is the current front runner it will not hold within this state as before with his large win in New Hampshire the vote resulted from it being a sister state to which he represents in congress then also upholding facsimile ideas. Ron Paul then with his highly controversial views will fall behind Gingrich within the primary as he has increased the number of "truth" adds of Mitt Romney.

awichgers said...

Although Romney has won the recent caucuses, I believe that Santorum will come out on top in South Carolina. This is due to the fact that a majority of voters in that state have similar values and beliefs as Santorum. In addition, he has consistently come in a close second to Romney, which shows that it's anyone's game. Therefore, I believe that Santorum will win in South Carolina. ps- *(Shout out to aaron nichols for referencing neature walk...)*

KKotecki said...

This is going to be a very close race but I think that Romney will win by a slight amount. Romney has momentum but will have a very difficult time due to ads against him. The news has been saying that Gingrich and his super pack will be putting out attack ads and most likely that will damage Romney's momentum a little bit. However, Romney seems to be looking on to the bigger picture of beating President Obama instead of attacking his opponents as much compared to the others who are solely concerned about attacking their opponents and winning the Republican nomination. Santorum will do better than expected because an article I was reading said that South Carolina was the third most religious state so they will support Santorum's values. It will be a very close race between Gingrich and Santorum for second place and it will be interesting to see the final results.

jryan said...

I think the leader of the polls in South Carolina will either be Gingrich or Santorum since those two have been doing a ton of campaigning done there. Although if Mitt Romney ends up winning the poll or at least getting 2nd wouldn't surprise me either since he has won all the recent polls so far. I really hope Stephen Cobert makes an appearance just to give some laughs for everyone.

JakobL said...

I'm pretty sure that Romney is going to win in South Carolina because he has a good basis and the other votes will probably going to split up between the big field of other candidates. The Christian aspect won't play a very large roll because even evangelical leader identified himself as a Romney supporter and the also Mormons identify themselves as Christian. My source was CNN.

sli said...

Based on washington post, South Carolina, where has active evangelical community and conservative electorate, might slow Romney's momentum. I still think that Romney would win the the south carolina primary, since he has won both Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary this year, and I think Gingrich would follow Romney.

MBoster said...

I believe that Rick Santorum will win South Carolina. There are many conservative christians down in South Carolina that I believe will vote for Santorum. I also predict that Romney will fall to third. I believe that Ron Paul will keep his consistent percentage and will be just slightly above Romney because the conservative christians do not want to vote for a mormon.

Sfrasher said...

I believe that Romney will win South Carolina like he has previously won Iowa and New Hampshire. CNN and virtually every news agency across the United States agree with my theory. Romney, I believe, has too strong of a lead for anyone else to even come close to him. Now with Huntsmann dropping out and endorsing Romney that will bring a lot of voters Romney’s way. Basically, Romney has this presidential race “in the bag”. I believe that Gingrich will come in second in South Carolina due to his Southern roots. I believe that Paul will come in third and Santorum fourth. I believe that if Romney will win it is pretty much over, because if something remarkable doesn’t happen in South Carolina, none of the other candidates really have a prayer for beating Romney.

PaulHurlbut said...

I think that Mitt Romney will take South Carolina as he has with Iowa and New Hampshire. He continues to lead the polls and is proving an excellent front runner. To add to his success, the endorsement from Huntsman will do nothing but boost his votes and popularity. Stephen Colbert is also viable since he is from South Carolina. Polls show him beating Rick Perry and I would be quite impressed if he can pull it off. Good luck Definitely Not Coordinated With Stephen Colbert Super PAC and Stephen Colbert.

Asalo said...

I think that Mitt Romney will once again come out on top. He has won both Iowa and New Hampshire already, so he has the obvious advantage in that aspect. Also, Romney is starting to campaign more like he is already running againsr Obama, where the other republican candidates are still focusing on putting down Romney.

Asalo said...

I think that Mitt Romney will once again come out on top. He has won both Iowa and New Hampshire already, so he has the obvious advantage in that aspect. Also, Romney is starting to campaign more like he is already running againsr Obama, where the other republican candidates are still focusing on putting down Romney.

MBoster said...

Is it just me or does the fact that Rick Perry endorsed Newt Gingrich mean absolutely NOTHING. Gingrich is on a short leash himself and will probably be another casualty of the primary process relatively soon.

ANichols said...

All I can say is wow. An impressive 41% of the votes puts Newt Gingrich in front of Romney in the South Carolina primary. With this, I believe that the rest of the campagin will be extremely intresting. Additionally, by Newt winning South Carolina, this goes to show that the campaign is not entirley rapped up. I am excited to talk more about this in class, and am intrested in the results of the future primarys and caucuses.

skerns said...

Gingrich came out on top! What a surprise! To be honest this win means absolutely nothing to me. Mitt Romney will still be the GOP candidate to face Obama. I feel this win might have helped Gingrich out and keep him in the race longer but he will eventually dwindle.