Sunday, February 13, 2011

Analysis: Does the CPAC straw poll winner foreshadow the next GOP nominee?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/13/AR2011021301463.html?hpid=moreheadlines

27 comments:

Zyork said...

I do not think the CPAC straw poll winner, Ron Paul, will be the next GOP nominee. I think it is more likely that Mitt Romney will win the GOP nomination due to the good reception of his speech. Ron Paul had a good speech but his power is limited within the Republican party.

EOetting hr.2 said...

I have to agree with Zach. I don't think Ron Paul will be the next GOP nominee. Due to his limited power in the Republican party, it will be hard to get past Mitt Romney, who as of now is the most likely to become the nominee.

Rjohnson-evers said...

I do not think that winning the CPAC straw poll foreshadows Ron Paul being the next GOP nominee for president. I agree with Zach and Erin in that Mitt Romney is the clear front runner who had a well received speech. I also think that the Republicans will have to choose a candidate that will be accepted across the country by a variety of groups. Thus, they will pick a candidate that holds true to their values without being overly polarizing.

KSASS said...

I believe that the CPAC straw poll winner does foreshadow the next GOP nominee. Ron Paul is beginning to have a recognizable name--he ran for presidency in 2008 and he has a lengthy and impressive political background. It would be too hasty to underestimate his potential.

GLeGros said...

A straw poll, according to washingtonpost.com, is defined as an "unofficial vote that is used to gauge the possible outcome of an official vote..."
The definition went on to state that a straw poll "can" be an effective means for determining the results of an election, but it also said that often times candidates manipulate the poll's outcome by "offering food, transportation, entertainment and other inducements to voters."
After reading and comprehending this definition, it is completely clear that this straw poll is probably not a very great indication of the next GOP nominee, as it is merely an "unofficial vote" that "can" be effective.

As a result, i would have to agree with the responses above. The straw poll most definitely does not foreshadow the next GOP nominee.

MAnderson said...

I am not thinking that the CPAC straw poll winner, Ron Paul will be the next GOP nominee. I agree with others that Mitt Romney above all is more likely he will get the nomination. He seems to have more power that Ron Paul, and is a better speaker

nwalters said...

I would agree with the fellow students of this fine academic class that say that the CPAC doesn't determine the GOP nominee. Ron Paul has been in politics for a long time but he just isn't going to be the next GOP nominee. I agree that Mitt Romney has a better chance in becoming the next GOP nominee because of his previous campaigning history and just for the fact that he is one of the richest republicans. With his capital he could easily run a successful campaign, therefore I believe he will be the more likely candidate for the GOP.

SMiller said...

I would be very surprised if Ron Paul gained much of a boost from this "victory." It seems thin as straw to me. Watching "Meet the Press" this morning, I was not surprised to find that the majority of panelists agreed that, although Romney did not win the straw poll, he came out ahead after CPAC because of his strong speech. But either way, I think it's important to keep in mind the amount of time between CPAC and the final GOP nomination. Candidates can make strong names for themselves this early in the race, but a lot can change over the course of the next year. It's kind of like predicting the winner for the next Super Bowl at this time of year. The Packers and Patriots both look strong, but there are still many months to decide the true frontrunners. Romney looks strong at this point, but who knows what will transpire over the course of the coming months.

JVarsos said...

From what I've read from the previous classmates and around the Interworldwidenetweb, I have come to the conclusion that the CPAC straw poll has in the past at times indicated the GOP nominee, but this is a stretch. With such amount of time before the nominee is made, and with others like Mitt Romney stepping up with powerful speeches, it is unlikely that the CPAC straw poll is indicative of the future. It appears that Mitt Romney is the name in everyone's mind, and that may be more foreshadowing than anything.

JHoltman said...

I don't believe that Ron Paul will be the next GOP nominee due to his lack of power in the Republican party. He had a good speech but Mitt Romney's speech,in my opinion, was stronger, and came from a more powerful member of the party. The combination of Romney's power and his solid speech have given him the inside track at becoming the Republican nominee.

Paul said...
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jwaltz said...

I do not think Ron Paul, the CPAC straw poll winner, will be the next GOP nominee. With his power limited within the Republican party, Ron Paul may not succeed as well as Mitt Romney. Because of Romney's past of campaigning, he has a better chance of becoming the next GOP nominee.

PAnderson said...

I don't believe just because Mitt Romney gave a good speech, he will succeed in becoming the next GOP nominee; however, he will most likely receive the GOP nomination because of his notoriety from his campaign for president in 2008. I like Sebastian's Super Bowl analogy in that it is simply too early to predict who will win the GOP nomination. We will have to wait and see whether the GOP values a better orator or a better leader.

LWundrock said...

In concurrence with my peers, I too feel that the CPAC victory for Ron Paul will not determine him to stand as the forerunner in the election. Mitt Romney is a big name with many strongholds of partisan power behind him, so it would be no surprise if he did in fact assume leadership without having earned the CPAC poll majority. This sort of misleading trend has been seen before, as one candidate seems to have taken the lead as a result of a poll, but within the time that the election will actually take place, a different winner may be identified.

LWundrock said...
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LWundrock said...
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rrantala said...

I believe that Ron Paul has a chance at becoming the next GOP nominee, but a slim one. He has an impressive political background but he has limited power as of right now in the Republican party. As others said it will be very difficult to get past Mitt Romney so I think that Ron Paul will not be the next GOP nominee.

mpavelko said...

I have to agree with Zorky poo. The CPAC straw poll winner will not be the next GOP nominee. He had a good run to become the straw poll winner, but Mitt Romney is more likely. However he is just as crazy as Cesar Chavez. His speech was outstanding, and his history of how he campaigns is like a prophecy. Ron Paul is like Pikachu and the Republican party is Lugia which is more of a powerful pokemon than the other. Which means the Republican Party is more powerful than Ron Paul.

JBerlyn said...

I completely agree with Pavelko. True brilliance :D

MKonicke said...

I agree with Pavelko and Berlyn. I don't think the CPAC straw poll winner will be the next GOP nominee. Romney just seems like he is a more fit candidate, and I feel the people will see that as well.

ckruesel said...

It seems to me that the straw poll is too unofficial to determine who the GOP nominee will be however, a straw poll definitely shows who has potential in the next election. Even if the straw poll does not indicate that Ron Paul will be the next GOP nominee for president it still shows that Paul will be a name to watch for in the upcoming race for president.

KRodenbeck said...

Nobody knows what will happen. This is a positive step for Ron Paul, but there are other qualified GOP members who will attempt to win the GOP nominee. We will have to wait and see what happens this fall.

DWayer said...

I am in a agreement with almost everyone that posted already, Mitt Romney is the clear and practical choice for the GOP's next nominee due to his experience. Although Ron Paul is becoming quite the sensation, it will probably be a few terms until he is able to claim this nomination.

dboyce said...

I think the CPAC straw poll is meaningless. Whoever seems to be ahead now is not gauranteed to get in. People change their minds, so the results will change and the candidates have a lot of time to try and get ahead of each other. We will have to wait and see who wins when the time comes.

dboyce said...

I think the CPAC straw poll is meaningless. Whoever seems to be ahead now is not gauranteed to get in. People change their minds, so the results will change and the candidates have a lot of time to try and get ahead of each other. We will have to wait and see who wins when the time comes.

RPawlow said...

Although Ron Paul came out as the CPAC straw poll winner, his overall influence in the Republican party isn't enough to warrant a GOP nomination. Mitt Romney, however, will most likely receive said nomination.

Ecotton said...

The CPAC straw poll does not foreshadow who the GOP candidate will be. The one reason is he is too far right and most voters are way closer to the middle. The swing voters keep candidates from the far left and right from running as major contenders in presidential elections.

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