Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Based on what you are reading, what are your predictions for the midterm elections?

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/house/gop-keeps-emphasis-on-district.html



By Aaron Blake
Two weeks before the election, Republicans are choosing their battles on mostly friendly turf, spending heavily in districts won by Sen. John McCain in the 2008 presidential race.

Despite a widening playing field, most of the National Republican Congressional Committee's targets remain in districts that went for the Arizona Republican and, often, even more strongly for President Bush in 2004.

Of the 60 Democratic districts where the NRCC has spread around its $30 million in ad buys, 33 are districts McCain won, while 27 were won by President Obama. When you include four districts where the NRCC is such a heavy favorite that it hasn't had to spend money, that means the party is pursuing 37 of a possible 48 seats that were won by both McCain and currently represented by a Democratic congressman -- also known as "McCain-Democrat" seats.

In a 38th McCain-Democrat district -- held by Rep. Heath Shuler (D-N.C.) -- national Democrats just spent their first money, but Republicans haven't joined the fray yet.

The only McCain-Democrat districts that the NRCC isn't spending in are those held by Shuler and Reps. Walt Minnick (D-Idaho), Mike Ross (D-Ark.), Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.), Collin Peterson (D-Minn.), Mike McMahon (D-N.Y.), Dan Boren (D-Okla.), Jason Altmire (D-Pa.), Tim Holden (D-Pa.), Jim Matheson (D-Utah) and Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.). The GOP holds some hope in some of these districts (expense may prohibit investing in districts like Altmire's and McMahon's), but many of them are lower-tier targets without big-name recruits that will likely only flip in an absolute bloodbath.

The NRCC is effectively trying to ensure victory in the most vulnerable Democratic districts while also playing in plenty of districts won by Obama. Indeed, they could conceivably win a majority just by winning McCain-Democrat districts.

They think by bringing an aggressive approach early in districts where the demographics are friendly, they have begun to push the Democrats to retrench in districts that are more Democratic-leaning.

47 comments:

ACzajkowski said...

My prediction is that Obama's presidency will have a coattail effect in Congress... except for Republicans. The only "change" he is bringing to America is more Republican members in the Senate and House.

cziolkowski said...

My prediction for the midterm elections is that the Republicans will be a majority in the House and Senate. I believe this because, throughout the polls in the US, the Republican is ahead by a couple of points or equal to the Democrate. This is how it is in Wisconsin as well. Johnson is slightly ahead of Feingold in the polls. I also think that as a country we would like to see new people in office to give new ideas to the country.

PAnderson said...

My prediction for the midterm elections is a Republican majority in the House and Senate. The race will be a challenge in dominant Democratic districts, but I believe Americans are fed up with Obama's liberal regime. America is ready to get back to basics with a GOP victory in the American legislature.

KSASS said...

For the midterm elections, I predict that the Republicans will have a majority in the House, but not in the Senate. The House has a higher turnover rate than the Senate, and therefore the Senate will be more difficult to gain a Republican majority. The race is tight between Republicans and Democrats and there is still a lot of time to do some more rallying. There has not been a flip in the House and Senate for decades, showing that party dominance is hard to achieve in one period of time. If there was a flip because of the results of the midterm elections it would definitely be historic.

GLeGros said...

Every majority election is significant because based on the results, a party majority in the house and senate is determined. Based on the information that I have heard and read over the past few weeks regarding polls, I have a strong belief that the midterm elections will result in a definite flip in the house along with a more than possible flip in the senate. I believe that when people vote, their decision is based on how they feel the government has performed and directly associate that with the president's decisions in office. As a result of president Obama's popularity decline I believe that the majority of the people will vote for the Republican party, giving it a likely possibility to take majority in both the house and senate.

Mwirch said...

My prediction for the midterm elections is that the republicans will take majority in both the House of Representatives, and also in the Senate. I am making this prediction based upon the current approval ratings of both president Obama, and also that of democrat incumbents. The American people are getting very tired of the current liberal trend happening right now in the government. I also wouldn’t be surprised to find that the Tea Party movement that is currently gaining popularity throughout America will have a considerable effect on the elections.

AHanna said...

When looking at this year's midterm elections, it almost seems clear what is going to happen. It's a classic political trend - when the American people aren't satisfied with the way the current party in control is operating things, they simply vote for the other party.

First of all, Republican voters will be strongly backing their candidates because there is a hype amongst Republicans about the excellent chances of making big gains in Congress. Secondly, many Democrats are even upset with the way the Obama administration and the Democrat (nope, no -ic) Congress have been "running the show," and certainly, more conservative Democrats will likely vote for Republicans in these midterms.

Therefore, my predictions for the midterms are that the Republicans will easily claim the majority in the House. The Senate will be more difficult to win seats in because of some heated elections in certain districts; however, I still believe that the Republicans can claim the majority there as well.

Blake Kraussel hr. 2 said...

My prediction is that after the Republicans will win back majority in the house and senate. As we look at ir now, one can see that it is the year of the anti-incumbant. At the moment the Democratic party holds majority in the House and the Senate. I think that America is fed up with what they have accomplished, therefore the Republican Party will take over.
This idea of the anti-incumbant is being displayed right here in our very own state. Russ Feingold (the incumbant and member of the Democratic Party) is loosing in the polls to Ron Johnson (member of the Republican Party). Russ has been the incumbant for eighteen years, this just shows that Wisconsin is fed up enough to probably not vote for him to be our senator. All of this backs my predicition that after the mid term elections, power and majority will swing back to the Republican Party.

CAbbey said...

My prediction is that the Republican party will without a doubt take the majority in the House and Senate, and finally we will have some common sense in the decision making process in Washington. According to the polls, the Republicans are fairly confident they have secured key districts to allow for a majority in both legislative chambers. People are finally seeing that Obama's Democratic view of "Change we can believe in" is hoax to increase the size of government's role in our personal lives, and a socialistic movement, which is not the right direction for this country to be headed.

M. Francis said...

Change, quite simply, the Obama administration presented during the 2008 election. Change did happen, but was it improvement? According to the polls and news that I have read, the American people do not believe that Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, and President Obama have improved America. I believe that it is quite easy to see that America will vote for better change during the midterm elections. The Republicans will take the House with, according to most of the polls, a huge swing in seats. The question is not will they, but how by how many. However, the Senate is a different story. Some Republicans did not run effective campaigns and strayed from the main issue-- the economy. If all the Republican Senate campaigns were orchestrated around that issue, the Senate would also become red. This is not the case, according to the polls I have seen, the Democrats will retain a slim majority in the Senate.

JHoltman said...

My prediction for the midterm elections is that the Republicans will gain a majority in both the House and Senate. Traditionally, the president's party usually loses seats in Congress at the midterm elections. I expect the same thing to happen this year. The public is upset over the way the Obama administration is handling some key issues, mainly our economy. Americans are going to want to see new faces in Congress that have more conservative views and don't spend so much money trying to stimulate the economy.

DannyF said...
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DannyF said...
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nspoerk said...

I'm predicting that the Republicanistic Party will take the majority in Congress in the upcoming elections, although I also predict that the result will be a majority with a close margin.

First of all, I think voting tendencies have changed after the beginning of the Democrats' control of the presidency and Congress. Republicans and conservatives are more likely to vote because they are eager to change the government that is likely clashing with their political views. Meanwhile, many Democrats and liberals are likely to be more hesitant in their voting due to the low approval rating of the Democrat administration. Basically, the ratio of Republican to Democrat voters will tip in favor of the Republicans.

Also, there are likely to be some voters in the moderate area that will lean more toward the conservative side. Under the Obama administration, there have been a lot of controversial bills passed, involving relatively high investments repaid by, as of yet, nonexistent rewards. Examples of this are the health care bill, the benefits of which still haven't come into effect, and the stimulus packages that seem to have worsened our economic stagnation by raising debt and reducing consumer spending by taking their otherwise spendable money with the higher taxes needed to support the bills. This will, in my opinion, lessen some voters' confidence in the notion of a big-government, high-spending, liberal system. Voters ideals, at least for the short term, will shift slightly to the right. Voters in the moderate, gray area in between will be more likely to vote Republican.

This predicts sweeping wins for the Republicans in the upcoming elections. However, I believe the Democrats might not lose as many seats as they otherwise should because of the relative proximity to the recent Bush administration and its similarily low approval rating. I predict that the loss of confidence in the Republican administration that allowed the Democrats into control could also save them. Because many lost that confidence, it will be less easy for some people to put their vote back into the hands of the Republicans. This will temper the effect of Obama's poor approval, although it wont eliminate it.

Bottom line: the Democrats will lose a significant number of seats in Congress, probably losing the majority, although the end margin of the majority will be lower that expected.

DannyF said...

My prediction is that the Republicans will be the majority in the House. Americans are beginning to realize that having the Democrats control both the House and Senate as it is currently is a problem. Citiezens are beginning to notice that we need a change. In order to keep an entire countries views balanced, their has to be a mix of both views. A lot of polls show that President Obama and the incumbents running for positions have a low apporval rating. This therefore is why I believe that the Republicans will take the majority in the House after the midterm elections.

caseymedved said...

This weekend, Demoratic canidats were polled ahead of Republicans. I predict that with this information and the scandals that are going on with some of the Republican canidats, Democrats will keep the majority. (I did some dabbling in witch craft to come to this prediction through my crystal ball)

ckruesel said...

I think that the Republican candidates will get elected in the midterm elections. I think that Americans aren't pleased with the President and Democratic Party, especially after the Heath Care Reform, and want them out of office. I also think the Democrats know they need all of the support they can get and that is why they are spending more than the Republicans.

DWayer said...

For the upcoming midterm elections, I believe that the Republicans will take over as the majority in both the House and the Senate, but only just slightly in the latter. The current polls show that the GOP has a commanding lead over the Democrats for seats in the House, about 26 seats. This statistic gives support to the anti-incumbent idea being talked about, and shows that the Democrats have really lost a great deal of power in large part from the Obama administration. The Senate, however, is more of an issue for Republicans. From the polls I have been currently watching, Democrats are supposed to be ahead by only 2 to 3 seats over Republicans. The reason I believe the Republicans will come out on top is because it seems that more moderates will vote in favor of the GOP as a result of the ineffectiveness the Democrats have displayed since the 2008 presidential election. Obama preached change, and it appears he is finally getting what he wanted, albeit in the form of a Republican House and Senate.

dboyce said...

I predict the Republicans will win in both the house and the senate. Republican voters are fired up right now and I would expect more of them to show up at the polls. Independent voters are also important this year. People are strongly against the incumbants this year and I'd expect to see independent voters voting against the incumbants. In this case the majority of the incumbants are democrats.

msenk said...

My prediction is as follows. I believe that the Republican party will win in the House of Representatives. This is based upon the polls taken. However I do feel that the senate could be a very close race. I also think that the Democrats will retain power in the Senate.

jwaltz said...

My prediction for the midterm elections is that the Republicans will gain majority in the House and the Senate, but for a major power shift to occur may not be as easy as people assume it will be. Most voters, I believe, will vote Republican because they don't want Democrats in office any longer; despite what is actually being discussed in the debates. The Tea Party movement can not shape the election based on "patriotic and incredibly positive" feelings. Voting involves more than getting a Republican or a Democratic official in office. Plus, as a karate expert, the rent is just too damn high, so in any event, Republicans and/or Democrats better learn to figure that out if they get in office. :)

RPawlow said...

I predict Republicans will become a majority in the House but not the Senate. I'd expect them to pick up seats, but not enough for a majority over the Senate. Given the track record of past elections (and midterm elections), a change in both the House and Senate seems unlikely. Knowing how close these elections are, something that significant will most likely not happen.

zhopp said...

i believe that the republicans will win a majority of the seats that are up for re-election in both the House and the Senate, and they will do so by winning 2/3 or so of those available seats, at least

eboecker said...

Due to the Democrat's low approval rating, I believe people will vote more Republicans into office this midterm. More specifically, I think that Republicans will take a majority hold in the House for sure, and possibly in the Senate as well.

KMatusinec said...

My prediction for the midterm elections is that the Democrats will keep the majority in Congress. Yes, people are unhappy with much of what has happened under the current administration, but I do not believe that a significant amount of voters are ready to give up hope on the Democratic party just yet. Many still see Deomocratic candidates as the lesser of two evils, and that is why they will maintain the majority.

sscheidt said...

I believe that in the upcoming election the Republicans will gain the majority in the House but not the Senate. As of now the majority of seats in the House are solid Republican, with 109 seats still in play. In the Senate race, however, the Democrats hold the majority of the seats with only 19 in play. Many voters are beginning to see the lack of change happening under the current Obama administration and Democratic majority in Congress, and the continuing downward spiral of national debt, among other issues, is lowering the approval rating of the current government. Because of this, more conservative voters may be willing to cast their vote, and more moderate voters will vote Republican. The desire for tangible change that hasn't seemed to happen yet will, in my opinion, be the driving force behind the shift in the majority in the House. Although the race will be close in the Senate, I don't think that the GOP will be able to seize the majority in the end.

moconnor said...

My prediction for the midterm elections is that the Republicans will have a significant majority in the House due to President Obama's low approval ratings. However, I do not believe that the Republicans will be able to obtain a majority in the Senate. I believe this because all of the seats in the House are up for reelection but only about a third, 36 to be exact, seats are up for grabs in the Senate. This makes it difficult for the Republicans to take over the Senate because the Democrates already have a strong amount of Senators who get to keep their seats for a couple more years. I do believe that the Republicans will be able to close the gab in the Senate but in the end the Democrats will still have a slight majority.

Zyork said...

My prediction is that the Republicans will get the majority in the House of Representatives, but that the Democrats will maintain the majority in the Senate because the electoral races in the Senate are a lot closer for some of the candidates (such as Russ Feingold vs. Ron Johnson).

JJewell said...

I believe that for the midterm elections, the republicans will gain majority in the house and in the senate. My prediction is based mainly on what the polls are showing and the belief that the citizens of the United States are looking for a change in the economy and have had enough of Obama's liberal regime.

MKonicke said...

My prediction for the midterm elections is that the Republicans will take the majority in the House and the Senate. I believe this because Mr. Obama's rating is very poor and I think it will be the opposite of the coattail effect. I believe this especially with how Feingold won't even go to Mr. Obama's speech.

nwalters said...

The most obvious prediction is that the Republicans are going to become the majority. But I don't believe that the Democrats are going to be completely phased out. Even with all the speculation that the Republicans are going to be the winner of almost all the elections. The Democrats still have a large population that believe they are the right party for their beliefs. My prediction is that the Democrats will pull through far better off then what all the poll data and news stations say.

cquartullo said...

My predictions for the mid-term elections are that the Republicans will gain the majorities in the House and Senate. Unsatisfatory sepending policies implemented by the Obama administration and the now Democratically controled Congress have created a growing counter movement. In a Bicameral System when one party loses support its oposing party usually gains it. So it can be clearly seen that disatisfation with how the Deomocrats are runing things will leave the Republicans with the advantage.

nwalters said...

Konicke, it is President Obama not mr. Obama.

Rsweeney said...

My prediction is that the democrats will win the majority. I believe that it will narrow down to the minorities in the midterm elections. Republican's have voted against many laws that would help out minorities such as muslims(mosque in New York City) gays(Don't ask don't tell), and latinos(dream act). And then there are union members, who realize that republican policies are anti-union and anti-middle class, and young people, who may still be inspired by the 2008 slogan of "Change". It will be close either way.

Ahackney said...

My predictions based on the recent polling is that the Republicans will gain control in the House. I believe the Senate seats will be a much closer race than the polls predict. I can see the Senate swinging Republican as well, or the Democrats retaining an ever slight majority. Many of the independent voters who voted for President Obama in 2008 might be considering to swing their votes to Republican canidates as President Obama's approval rating have continued to fall. As with everything, time will tell.

Hillary said...

My prediction for the midterm election is that the Republican party will regain the majority in both the House and the Senate. one source has stated,"The voters are tired of the fact that the federal government has not listened to them over the past two years, has moved in its own direction, at its own rhythm and they want to pull back on that,and I think you're going to see a wave, an unprecedented wave on election day that's going to surprise a lot of people." I completely agree with this comment made by the Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele. Many Americans are frustrated with the way things are going. A lot of them have realized that they have not recieced the "change" they were promised. I believe this frustration will lead to many Americans voting on the republican side causing the majority to shift to the repulicans.

nklinka said...

My election predictions feature a change in majority within the house to the Republicans and a virtual stalemate within the senate. The shift towards Republicans is obvious when the incumbent president is a Democrat with a low approval rating. Also, the senatorial race in Alaska is a good example of the Republican nature of this election. The state of Alaska, while traditionally a Republican state, is so much more Republican than usual that they are able to back two separate essentially Republican candidates and have them gain more poll support than the one Democratic candidate. However, the senate tends to not be as fluid in its party shifts, and thus the Republicans will be unable to attain a clear majority.

rrantala said...

I predict that the midterm elections will result in more members of the House and Senate being Republicans. I have read that this election is very important for the Republicans in many ways. It will help with the election next year, giving the Republicans a better chance of taking office. In addition, this election will help reshape the government and allow for differing opinions. Overall I believe that the Republicans will win the election.

bradysims said...

My prediction for the midterm elections are that the Republicans are going to have more members in the House and the Senate. I predict this because there have been some recent polls that the Republicans are ahead of the Democrats. This is an important election not only for the state of Wisconsin, but this is big within the country as well. People are excited for this election because it is relatively a close battle right now! This is a very important election for the Republican side. We need a new and fresh leader for Wisconsin. Not one who has been around Washington and picking up on all the qualities that the leaders of Washington have like Feingold. We need a runner that understands the people and that have ran a business in Wisconsin that truely understands what Wisconsin needs. This is why i think that the people of Wisconsin are going to vote Republican.

JVarsos said...

According to recent events and polls, it seems clear that the House will flip to the Republican party. Supporting this are the negative attitude surrounding the Obama administration and overall disappoint with the ability of Democrats to end the stagnation of our economy.

However, the Senate is another story. With 36 seats being contested and a current democratic majority, it will be difficult for republican candidates to attain a majority. Although, imcumbents are facing a lot of frustrated voters who may swing to the other side. Also, some of the republican candidates for Senate have not received the most positive attention lately, and that will affect the races in the Democrats' favor. Ultimately, I think America is looking to the Republican party for a change in economy, as polls illustrate, that the Democrats have been unable to provide.

I predict that the House will become a Republican majority and the Senate will have a close race ending with a slight Democratic majority.

cmanderson046 said...

I believe that republicans will have majority after the midterm elections. This is because America is a country with no patience we want change now and from the looks of it the democracts are not providing change. Also America is quick to change and they believe the Republicans will be able to do a more quicker and better job than Obama's regime. This is why I believe the republicans will have majority lead after the midterm elections.

JScott said...

My prediction is that the Republicans will have a majority in the House and Senate. This is based on the polls taken and that right now in our nation the Democrats are loseing support in general. Also when problems are not being solved quick enough people tend to vote for the oppisite party of the president.

SMiller said...

With Democratic incumbents being at such a disadvantage in this year's election, I predict that the Republicans will most likely be able to gain the majority in the House. With so many seats up for grabs, Republicans seem to have a clear advantage due to Obama's low approval ratings.

I feel the Senate, on the other hand, will be a much more contested race. Many of the senatorial races are extremely tight at this point, including Feingold vs. Johnson here in Wisconsin. Because fewer seats are up for grabs in the Senate, I would not be surprised if the Democrats are able to retain a slight majority.

In short, I predict the GOP to take control of the House, but the Democrats to retain control of the Senate by a slim margin. An election with such results would clearly shift some of the power in Washington away from the Democrats for the final two years of Obama's presidential term.

DSundholm said...

My prediction for the midterm elections is that the Republicans will have the majority in both House and Senate. I think this because the Republicans are ahead in most of the polls and seem to be more popular right now because the things Democrats are doing right now do not seem to go over well with most people. If the people don’t like what the people in office are doing, they will try and put new people in office.

mpavelko said...

I believe that both houses will be filled up with representatives as well as senaters that will be republican because of president Obama. The houses are being affected by what he is doing. Like when that one democrat was not there because of his picnic that he had to attend. He should realize he is doing something wrong when people from his own party will not even be shown in public with him. The houses are going to start filling up with republicans. That is my prediction for this upcoming election.

JBerlyn said...

I believe the Republicans will gain a majority in the House after the midterm elections but not the Senate. Because of the decreasing approval ratings of the Obama administration and the fact that many of the seats in play are currently held by Democratic incumbents, these seats are increasingly likely to be taken by republicans. The Republicans are hitting the seemingly undecided areas harder than Democrats which will likely decide the change in majority. The republicans need to win about half of the undecided districts to gain the 39 or more seats they need to take the majority. As for the Senate, the Democrats will probably still hold a majority after the midterms. Despite having more than half of the seats in play most likely voting Republican, the Democrats will probably be able to hold on to enough seats to retain the majority. With 40 seats continuing under democrats and 6 seats most likely being voted democrat, they only need 5 of the 19 seats under question to retain the majority. This will most likely happen because the Democrats are focusing more heavily on already democratic districts.

Ecotton said...

My prediction is that most likely the republicans will get a majority in the senate but it will be extremely close to call in the house.