Sunday, April 20, 2008

Analysis: Who will win in PA, by how much, and what will it mean to the race?

Read this:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/19/opinion/19herbert.html

My Prediction:
McCain by a lot.
I'll give my Democratic predictions later...(you should comment on the Democratic race, not the GOP side).

36 comments:

JamieW said...

Who knows.
I'm hoping Obama will take the race. :-)
By a lot.

cmorgan said...

Obama all the way yo. He's got this thing wrapped up. Down with Billary!!!!!

mente said...

Bob Herbert is an interesting man. Maybe the cause of all his cynicism derives from growing up with two first names.

As a supporter of Obama, I hope that he takes PA like he should, but by how much is difficult to guess. It'll be close.

As for what will that do for the race... Hillary will stay in until the DNC at which time the nominee will be chosen, giving that nominee at least 6 fewer months than McCain to run a general election campaign which could potentially cause there to be another Republican in the White House for at least the next 4 years. AWESOME!

Vlad said...

I feel Sen. Clinton will win Pennsylvania significantly: she'll have her highest percentage, yet. I felt that it would be a tough race in PA when people first started to talk about it and with all of these problems Obama has had recently, I think she's gained more support.
I feel Obama will perform well in Philadelphia and its suburbs but Clinton will carry Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh's suburbs, and everything inbetween Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. PA is just more of a Clinton state, I think.
Regardless of her victory, she can't be the nominee because as I've heard many pundits say, she will never get a lead over Obama even if she wins all remaining states and Puerto Rico.

Angelina said...

The way it looks now, it definitely looks like Senator Hilary Clinton will win. And personally I don't really know what it will mean to the race, when she wins.

amandak said...

I think Hillary will win by a considerable margin, but I don't think it will matter in the long run. What I don't know is why she doesn't just accept the probability of her losing the nomination and save the Democratic party (and maybe some of her pride as well).

ericag said...

I feel like I'm lost with the election; we no longer spend time discussing it, and the homework load has been on overload.iIlost all touch with the election. From what im hearing it sounds like (='[) Sen. Clinton is gonna win it, eventhough i do not want her to AT ALL, and I still think its going to be close. I hoping Sen. Obama can pull out a victory. I think he really needs it to stop the bad media coverage he is getting.

As for the overall election... I think the country is looking for a Democrat for office. Even if Sen. McCain gets to campaign for six months,the Democrats are still getting more media coverage across the country.

joannaz said...

Clinton will win in Pennsylvania by a significant margin (I'm thinking 58/42). She is able to get working class votes and Obama's momentum was slowed by his losses in Ohio and his loss of the primary in Texas (i'm not counting the caucases or the fact that he won more delegates from Texas in the end). With constant coverage and criticism of Obama's slip ups, it doesn't seem he will be able to do much in a state that is so favorable to Clinton.

KellyH said...

1. Mente, I love you and your sarcasm.

2. My prediction is that Billary will win PA, probably by a fairly large margin (I know, I'm also horrified that I'm saying this). Although Obama's comments were completely truthful, they did cost him some votes. Also, like Vlad said, it really is just more of a Clinton state.

3. I think while it may give Hillary a bit of momentum, it won't last long, and Obama will probably still get the nomination.
If you look at the big picture though, I think this may cost us the presidency. The longer this drags out, the more there will be bickering between candidates and less focusing on the main goal.


It's really just sad if you think about the whole situation. In the beginning, there were Democratic candidates who all seemed strong, and it looked like no matter who won the nomination, it would be fairly easy to win the presidency. Now, the GOP has had a nomination for a long time, and the Democratic candidates are wasting precious time-- mudslinging and consequently defending themselves from attacks, worrying about constantly having their flag pin on their lapel-- instead of debating issues that matter and working on continuing to get their messages of what the future could be out to the people. The whole race has taken a turn for the worse, and it's sad because it's just like most everything else in this country; things look so promising and then they turn to crap. Maybe that's cynical of me, but right now, I just don't see how the realistic outcomes right now are going to be good for the people who desperately need a better president.

Tom B. said...

Personally I hope Hillary takes it by a huge margin. Mind you I can’t stand either Hillary or Obama, but this whole democratic campaign is just giving McCain more time to work it on a national level. The way things are working right now from a republican standpoint is perfect. As these two battle it out I’m just sitting back and watching McCain present a good image for himself. He has a better chance of winning now than he did before and the prolonged campaign is just helping even more. So overall I hope Hillary takes every state from here on out.

Sincerely your conservative friend,

Tom Bullis

Erica C said...

Hillary by a a lot.
In Obama's speech after the race is called for Clinton, he'll probably claim that she won because she turned the focus of the race away from the "real issues."

CarolineB said...

I think Hillary will win because Obama has gotten himself into quite a rut at quite a terrible time. She won't win by too much, but it could be enough to boost her ego and also my annoyance with her. It'll mean Obama has to work a hell of a lot harder to make his points and remind the public that it is OUR decision if we want to change the paradigm of politics. He can still do it.



By the way, that guy was hilarious. I definitely "LOL"ed

aly mac said...

I believe that Senator Clinton will win Pennsylvania by a significant amount of the vote. However, I don't think that this will change the direction of the campaign a lot. Obama will continue to lead in delegates and I believe he will take the democratic nomination. We'll see though. In the mean time, however McCain seems to be settling into the next campaigning steps quite comfortably.

Mr. Bretzmann said...

Clinton will win in PA, but only by 3 points. Several superdelegates will come out in favor of Obama every couple of days between Wednesday and May 6 (Indiana and North Carolina). Obama will get a bounce going into those states and he'll win big in North Carolina and slightly smaller in Indiana. He'll net more delegates in those wins than Clinton does in PA. She'll drop out of the race on May 7 (unless of course she stays in until Kentucky, wins there and then drops out). This does not go to June 3. This does not go to the convention. That's what PA means to the race. (If Clinton wins by more than 6, look for Edwards to endorse Clinton and her husband to endorse Obama).

katiekso said...

Its likely that Hilary Clinton will win the race in Pennsylvania. Personally, I would like to see Obama win but either way it is going to be a close race. Even though the GOP race is up in the air I think I'll predict that McCain will win.

Adam L said...

I believe Clinton will take PA, but only by a small margin, yet where will the delegate count go to. I believe Clinton must take mare than she will to gain the nominee.

CassieH said...

I am not sure.

Only time will tell.

but if I have to guessss Clinton.

I don't think either will win by and outstanding amount.

The end.

Jake_H said...

I want Obama to win, but im not sure if he is going to. The polls have them close with Clinton ahead. I think that this will probably be the outcome. If Obama does win I think that Clinton is done for. Ths super delegats will relize that Obama is the right choice.

Johnny B said...

I think that Senator Clinton will win by around 53/47. It will keep her in this race longer, but I also believe that superdelegates will start to endorse candidates sometime soon and that will substantially impact the outcome of the whole democratic race.

Alex D said...

Penn: Clinton by 6 or more

Indiana: Clinton by 2

NC: Obama by 15

(not really my opinions, just the polls)

Clinton wins Penn and Indiana and sticks through the race from until the convention, since she has proven she will be stubborn until the end, fighting the whole time trying for michigan and florida ext.

rebeccas said...

Lots of people are hoping for Obama to win it, but I don't really see it happening. Last time I checked Hillary was leading in the polls. (not that polls are the end all, be all, but they are a gauge)

JamieW said...

I've been watching MSNBC/CNN a lot. Mainly because watching TV is one of the few things I can do while I'm home with the flu. No one seems to be REAL convinced that Clinton will be able to stay in long enough to win the nomination. Some don't even seem to be convinced that she'll win Pennsylvania by a large margin. Interesting stuff.

Mr. Bretzmann said...

Here we go...

Seat belt. Check.
Popcorn. Check.
Page ready to be turned. Check.
Lou Dobbs voodoo doll. Check.
McCain-Thompson 08 Banner. Check.

KellyH said...

Mr. Bretzmann, you make me "LOL".
But you shouldn't be leading Tom on like that.

Mr. Bretzmann said...

Quick call is good for Clinton.

Too close to call is good for Obama (it might mean he did well in the middle state small county areas).

A tie is good for the McCain/Paul Ryan 08 team.

L-ing OL is good for your health.

Mr. Bretzmann said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyhIBXNfqMA

AAAAdrian!

Mr. Bretzmann said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F623LAMQvbs&feature=related

...from boxing to wrestling (or wrastlin' if you prefer).

(if there aren't votes coming in soon, I may have to read the story about Miley Cyrus's book deal).

Johnny B said...

About the Rocky video...I've already seen it. :D

About the wrestling video, I knew about this because my 8 year old brother is actually into wrestling. So I actually got to watch it live. It was entertaining. Here is "them" actually wrestling.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CbnZCqZHPdU

Johnny B said...

P.S. They called Clinton to win PA with 7% in.

tomj said...

They may have called it for Hillary but I think that Obama is gonna take it. I thought the race should have been over a long time ago with Obama winning it.

newkirk said...

I didn't post before the election but Hillary won, I think.

Johnny B said...

How did she win by 10 percent last night?

JamieW said...

haha. i love that picture of billary john.

BrookeS said...

"Pre-in-class-government-and-politics-study-week-for-A-P-exam-study-group" at Brooke Stawski's house tonight @ 7:00p.m. Call (414)550-7563 for directions.

BrookeS said...

Study group cancelled.

Jbyko10 said...

Well its over and done with. McCain and Clinton. I was not shocked at all. This was big for clinton, she will gain more momentum and the Democrats are now at it again!