Sunday, November 05, 2006

Analysis: How many seats will change hands in the 2006 elections?

Do you need to revise your previous predictions?

Last chance to comment on the latest polling, the "mood of the country", voters sticking with or running away from their party, final campaign swings, ad blitzes and last minute political scandals and events . . .

10 comments:

BrandonK said...

In my opinion only one thing is certain. I believe that more seats in the House will change position, than seats in the Senate. If I had to guess I would say that the Democrats would pick up three or four seats in the Senate. Bob Casey Jr., Sherrod Brown, Sheldon Whitehouse and Bob Tester are the Democrats who have the best chance of winning a seat in my opinion. In the House though, I think the Democrats should be able to pick up somewhere between 25 and 35 seats. I'm really sure that the Democrats are going to take control of the House, and with the Senate races getting closer and closer every day, the Democrats may even surprise me and take over the Senate as well.

justinbel said...

I agree with brandon, i think the democrats will take over control of the house, but barely miss taking over the senate aswell. I think almost all of the races will turn out the way they are being predicted currently.

tonileep said...

I agree with both. I think that many Democrats will gain seats in the House of Representatives. I would say probably around 30 seats. However, I believe that they will only obtain a couple of seats in the Senate. I think that any close race between the Democrats and Republicans that the Democrats will win. I think that this is a very good year for the Democrats and they will be taking control.

brandong said...

I disagree with Brandon and Justin. I believe that although the Democrats have great chances at picking up seats, they kind of got shot in the head by "Jon Carry" because of what he said last week. Like I said Democrats still have good chances at picking up seats, but their chances have kind of dropped in the last week.

Jahir D said...

I have to agree with Brandon G. (Though i must disagree with his spelling of 'John Kerry') The midterm election was looking very good for the Democratic party, but Kerry's mispoken comments made them loose most, if not all, their momentum. The GOP will deffinately capitalize on his comments and shine a negative light on the entire Dem. party. Not only that, but the Republicans will also use Saddam Hussein's guilty verdict and death sentence as a sign that the Iraqi people are headed in the right path.
This will, in my opinion, damper the Democrat's hopes of gaining control in the House and erase any hope of gaining control of the Senate.

MikeM said...

With Tuesday fast approaching I think the Democrats will pick up around 20 seats covering the 15 seats needed to take control of the House. Recent events have hurt the Democrats and may have lost them a few seats but I think they just have too much momentum going into this election. The majority of America is looking for a change and the Democrats are offering that change. As for the Senate that’s another story. There are just too many seats to make up and not enough close races for the Democrats to win. They will probably pick up a few seats but not enough to cover the 6 needed. As for the spelling of John Kerry I believe Brandon was alluding to this picture http://www.nbc11.com/2006/1102/10227622_240X180.jpg

KimK said...

I don't think many seats will change parties. I agree with Brandon G. and Jahir: John Kerry definitely reduced, if not diminished, the momentum the Democrats had up until that point. Also, the Saddam Hussein verdict will probably help the Republicans in showing progress in Iraq and therefore keep them their seats in both houses of Congress.

Megan B said...

Now that the elections are over, and we know that Democrats have taken both the House and the Senate. Logical questions, that have varying view points, which arise after a shift in power, are why? And how will this affect the policies of our government in the next few years? What will happen next?

In my opinion a majority of the American voters “wanted a change in the direction of the country” (how many times have we heard that one). I do think that the wanted the corruption involved with the national politics to decrease. The voters drew a connection with corruption to the Republican party. Although the cases of corruption were just individuals who were primarily Republican, the whole party got the blame. I think that even the old saying that “all politics is local” was proven wrong during these past congressional elections. National issues such as corruption and the Iraq policies won out over local issues, and the pork barrel politics that are often used.

How will this affect our nation? I don’t think the U.S. will immediately pull out of Iraq, but I do think there will be many changes in the way our country strategically fights the combatants. With the resignation of Donald Rumsfeld from the post of Secretary of Defense and his replacement Robert Gates, and the new democrat controlled congress, there are sure to be changes to the policies in the War on Terror. But is the resignation of Rumsfeld, just a precursor to other major changes in the Whitehouse staff? I don’t think so; I think Vice President Cheney can feel secure at his post (as long as he doesn’t take Bush hunting with him). There may be other minor changes in the staff, but nothing as major as the “resignation” of Rumsfeld. As for a major policy changes, in my opinion the Whitehouse and the Congress will be at a stalemate for control, thus nothing of importance will be achieved in the next two years.

trevorhguy said...

Well, seeing as how we already know the number of seats exchanged I will talk about what will happen in the next two years under Democratic majority. Democrats will try to reign in the erratic self-destructing spiral that the Republican regime was settled into. I think that they will pressure Bush for a plan for Iraq and that he will respond by firing more of his cabinet at random as a defense. The Democrats will also control the decision if another member of the Supreme Court retires. This will ensure that Bush doesn’t get to choose yet another member. I don’t think that the Democrats will do much about the economy right now. I think that they will leave that alone in order to utilize it in 2008.

tonileep said...

I must say that with the elections for 2006 I was somewhat surprised. I did expect the Democrats to gain the House of Representatives; however, I did not think that they would also gain the Senate. I guess the American people have spoken and want a change in how things are working. I think it will be quite interesting to see what will happen in the next couple of years and how the Democrats will take control of their new power. Also, It will be interesting to see how the presidental election will go and see if the American people want a Democrat president as well.