What is your opinion of the Nov. 2 election results? Are the results good for the country, good for the parties, good for the president?

Based on what you are reading, what are your predictions for the midterm elections?

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/house/gop-keeps-emphasis-on-district.html



By Aaron Blake
Two weeks before the election, Republicans are choosing their battles on mostly friendly turf, spending heavily in districts won by Sen. John McCain in the 2008 presidential race.

Despite a widening playing field, most of the National Republican Congressional Committee's targets remain in districts that went for the Arizona Republican and, often, even more strongly for President Bush in 2004.

Of the 60 Democratic districts where the NRCC has spread around its $30 million in ad buys, 33 are districts McCain won, while 27 were won by President Obama. When you include four districts where the NRCC is such a heavy favorite that it hasn't had to spend money, that means the party is pursuing 37 of a possible 48 seats that were won by both McCain and currently represented by a Democratic congressman -- also known as "McCain-Democrat" seats.

In a 38th McCain-Democrat district -- held by Rep. Heath Shuler (D-N.C.) -- national Democrats just spent their first money, but Republicans haven't joined the fray yet.

The only McCain-Democrat districts that the NRCC isn't spending in are those held by Shuler and Reps. Walt Minnick (D-Idaho), Mike Ross (D-Ark.), Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.), Collin Peterson (D-Minn.), Mike McMahon (D-N.Y.), Dan Boren (D-Okla.), Jason Altmire (D-Pa.), Tim Holden (D-Pa.), Jim Matheson (D-Utah) and Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.). The GOP holds some hope in some of these districts (expense may prohibit investing in districts like Altmire's and McMahon's), but many of them are lower-tier targets without big-name recruits that will likely only flip in an absolute bloodbath.

The NRCC is effectively trying to ensure victory in the most vulnerable Democratic districts while also playing in plenty of districts won by Obama. Indeed, they could conceivably win a majority just by winning McCain-Democrat districts.

They think by bringing an aggressive approach early in districts where the demographics are friendly, they have begun to push the Democrats to retrench in districts that are more Democratic-leaning.

Who has political power in America?

Give at least two examples that the person you cite has political power.

If you're looking for a good book:

Game Change is an awesome book (but it does have a few choice swear words...beware).

If it's Tuesday, it's election day somewhere in the U.S.

U.S. Senate runoff in Arkansas
Blanche Lincoln is hoping to avoid becoming the third sitting senator to lose an intraparty fight this year, but even her closest allies acknowledge that her Democratic runoff race against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter is a tossup.

Three weeks ago, Lincoln got 44.5 percent of the vote to Halter's 42.5 percent in the Democratic primary. A third candidate in that race, conservative D.C. Morrison, won 13 percent, forcing Lincoln and Halter into Tuesday's runoff.

Much like the primary, the runoff has pitted Lincoln and her supporters within the Democratic establishment -- former president Bill Clinton has campaigned for her and she has been endorsed by President Obama -- against organized labor, which has dumped millions of dollars into ads and voter identification programs on Halter's behalf.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/05/AR2010060503912.html?sid=ST2010060503894

Which races did you think were important last Tuesday and which ones are you watching for the future.

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) narrowly leads Florida's U.S. Senate race, "despite nearly half of the voters saying he made a 'purely political' decision to bolt the GOP and run as an independent candidate in the Nov. 2 general election, a new St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9 poll finds. Crist leads with 30%, followed by Marco Rubio at 27% and Kendrick Meek (R) at 15%. However, the race remains volatile: Crist's lead over Rubio is within the poll's four point margin of error, and nearly one out of four voters are undecided.

Blame it on the president. He's a week too late to help...

Mike Allen: "Look for President Obama to name his Supreme Court pick Monday, and look for it to be Solicitor General Elena Kagan, a former Harvard Law dean. The pick isn't official, but top White House aides will be shocked if it's otherwise.

Kagan's relative youth (50) is a huge asset for the lifetime post. And President Obama considers her to be a persuasive, fearless advocate who would serve as an intellectual counterweight to Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Scalia, and could lure swing Justice Kennedy into some coalitions The West Wing may leak the pick to AP's Ben Feller on the later side Sunday, then confirm it for others for morning editions."

Another sign: Salon reports the White House is circulating pro-Kagan talking points.

http://cbs2chicago.com/video/?id=58112@wbbm.dayport.com

http://cbs2chicago.com/video/?id=58112@wbbm.dayport.com

Stop blogging! Go study!

Theodore Roosevelt on this day in 1910:

"It is not the critic who counts: not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself for a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat."
"Citizenship in a Republic,"Speech at the Sorbonne, Paris, April 23, 1910

Campaign Money and Lobbying (6:02) This is an important one.

http://cbs2chicago.com/video/?id=57698@wbbm.dayport.com

Presidential Review:

http://cbs2chicago.com/video/?id=57971@wbbm.dayport.com

(remember two reviews this week after school: Tuesday and Thursday)

Presidential First Pitches

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/thelife/gallery?id=4299989

Do you think recess appointments are appropriate or not (i.e. are they a violation of advise and consent)?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/27/AR2010032703085.html

A brief guide to the healtcare vote:

With assistance from David Waldman and Sarah Binder -- and the caveat that we don't know many details yet -- here's a very rough guide to what will happen with the health care reform bill this weekend:

The House Rules Committee will likely meet on Saturday morning to draft a special rule *that allows the House to pass a bill by approving the rule and not necessarily the bill itself. By all indications, this rule will be the now famous "self-executing" rule which "deems" the Senate health care bill passed upon adoption of the rule. While Republicans on the Rules Committee may try to amend the rule, they're dramatically outnumbered by Democrats 9 to 4.

The House will likely debate the rule for about an hour and hold a vote on whether to end debate. Assuming that passes, the House holds another vote on adopting the rule. If the rule is approved with 216 votes, the House may begin debate on the reconciliation bill that makes fixes to the Senate version of the health care bill.

The House then debates the reconciliation according to guidelines set forth by the rule. Once debate is finished, the House will finally hold an up-or-down vote on the reconciliation bill. If it passes with 216 votes, the original Senate bill goes to the President for his signature.

However, the fireworks start all over again in the Senate next week as debate begins on the reconciliation bill with the "fixes." Republicans have promised a flurry of amendments and other stalling techniques to try to block the bill.

*this didn't happen this way. there is no "deem and pass" rule.

everyone look!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!haha sorry Mr. Bretzmann go to 72:30 to see Mr. Bretzmann in 1992...with hair
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/32356-1

pminer

What are the explanations for the fact that Congressional incumbents usually win their reelection bids? What are the sources of their advantages?

http://cbs2chicago.com/video/?id=58076@wbbm.dayport.com

Above is another great video and analogy (btw: READ THE CHAPTER ON CONGRESS AGAIN!)

Below is a link to an incumbent who may NOT win! (due to a rare primary challenge)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/06/AR2010030602239.html

Interest Groups (not healthcare...interest groups)

Washington interest groups have burst back into action in hopes of bolstering or defeating a new Democratic push on health-care reform legislation, sparking another wave of rallies, lobbying efforts and costly advertising campaigns.

The fresh round offers a clear signal that the industries and advocacy groups most likely to be affected view the coming weeks as the final battle in determining whether Democratic proposals become law.

Their efforts suggest a return to the frenzied pace of last year's health-care debate, which prompted more than $200 million in advocacy ads and broke records for lobbying. Companies and trade groups last year hired more than 4,500 lobbyists to influence health reform -- amounting to about eight lobbyists for each member of Congress, according to an analysis released last week by the Center for Public Integrity.

Reacting to President Obama's recent statements that he will move ahead with legislation, health insurance companies have enlisted hundreds of lobbyists in a full-court press against the proposed overhaul, which would force dramatic cuts and increased regulation on the industry. At the same time, insurers are pushing back against a separate bill approved by the House last week that would remove the industry's antitrust exemption.

Pharmaceutical lobbyists are also targeting Obama's plan, which includes administration proposals to secure an extra $10 billion in cuts from the industry and to ban deals between brand-name and generic drugmakers that keep cheaper medicines off the market.

The ramped-up effort is particularly evident among conservative advocacy organizations, many of which had optimistically halted spending after Democratic reform plans were cast into doubt by the January loss of a Senate seat in Massachusetts. The 60 Plus Association, a conservative group, announced a $500,000 television advertising campaign last week aimed at 18 centrist House Democrats, all of whom voted in favor of reform legislation last fall but whose support is now seen as wobbly.

The National Right To Life Committee -- which strongly opposes the Senate version of the health-care package -- has launched its own grass-roots campaign to pressure dozens of antiabortion Democrats in the House, who are crucial to passage of a final bill. Americans for Prosperity, a conservative Arlington-based group, also says it bought $250,000 worth of television advertising last week and is laying plans for more ads and rallies in March.

"I think a lot of people thought we had it licked, so it was natural to let up a little bit," said Tim Phillips, president of the Arlington group, which organized hundreds of antireform demonstrations over the past year. "All those thoughts are gone now. We are re-engaged in a big way."

Democratic and liberal activist groups, meanwhile, are rallying with their own efforts in hopes of pushing legislation across the finish line.

MoveOn.org, for example, said that a "virtual march" organized Tuesday bombarded lawmakers with more than 1 million pro-reform e-mails. The group also released a television ad Friday targeting House Minority Leader John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) for opposing the antitrust bill.

"We have the votes; let's get it done," said Ilyse Hogue, the group's political advocacy director. "We're focused on sending that clear message to the House and Senate."

One glaring exception to the renewed activity is AARP, the 40 million-member seniors group, which has spent millions on advertising and other efforts over the past year in favor of Obama's health-care plans. A. Barry Rand, the group's chief executive, called on other groups last week to lower the temperature in the debate so that "compromise is possible."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/27/AR2010022703253_2.html