This blog is a place for us to give our Analysis and Opinions on important topics related to civics, government and politics.
Analysis is a clinical interpretation of items, issues, ideas, or events and an explanation of their impact on the future (i.e. something you think is going to happen).
Opinion is composed of your reactions, feelings, and beliefs on items, issues, ideas or events (i.e. something you would like to happen). Even though they are your opinions, they should be based in fact.
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Analysis: What do you think the Republican and Democratic prospects are for 2010?
I think that the 2010 Republican and Democratic prospects will be strongly influenced by the economy and how its state before the election. A Democratic majority will be maintained because re-election rates for incumbents often exceed 90%. Another reason for my conclusion was when Gingrich said, referring to rising levels of unemployment, "These guys [conservatives] could easily preside over the [British] Labor Party's 'winter of discontent' in 1979". That may have been the situation with english economy that a conservative rose to power, but in the U.S when the economy is failing we bring in democratic leaders. History also vindicates my claim. As seen in the Great Depression, FDR, a Democrat, entered office and began breathing life back into the economy. Herbert Hoover, Republican, preceded FDR. We are not in a situation as dangerous as the Great Depression,and this is a presidential election, not a congressional election but our economy is suffering and events may play out in a similar manner. Republicans are usually associated with spending and cutting social programs, where as democrats are associated with extending social programs and decreasing expenditures. With that in mind, it appears logical that congress will maintain a democratic majority because of our economy and preceding historical events.
With the perceived state of where the world is right now, Republican prospects are slim at best. Its been empirically proven that when the economy gets rough, the Democrats get in office. 2010 will be no exception. The only reason that the situation now may be different is, as Austin says, we aren't nearly as bad as we were in the depression, as a nation. Add to this whatever "obama factor" you personally believe applies, and republican outlook doesn't look as bad, but is still nowhere near very good.
I agree with prichard that we are no where near as bad as we were in the great depression. Nowever we arn't that far from getting their. Even with the "obama factor" as klinka may have said does help in the public eye because he is not a republician and they believe that because he is a democratic he will automaticly do better. So i believe that they are not as far apart as everyone may think. They are thinking mostly the same thing.2010 will be the same as the other years. Both partys look ok to me, not great but ok for now.
The answer is always the same. Both factions just want control over our minds and lives. No matter who is in control of the government, the people are going to get screwed. Power and control are the motives behind every party's goals. It doesn't matter what year it is, economic cycle, or party that is in power. nothing changes.
I think that since the Congress has been controlled by the Democrats, very little has changed in regards to public policy and the economy. Even though this slow, change-retardant system might be working exactly the way the Framers wanted it to, voters will always be tuned into a candidate who promises rapid change. Democrats have not fomented change quickly enough, maybe Republicans will, is their mindset. As the article said, liberal skepticism could play a major role in the elections too. With all these broken promises regarding the date of health care reforms being completed and skepticism about the current White House administration, Democrats may face a definite head-wind going into the 2010 elections.
The Republican Party, at this moment, reminds me of the Detroit Lions. Ok, maybe not that bad--more like the Cleveland Browns. Not too far in the distant future there was a glimmer of success, but it faded quickly. Next came a good time of turmoil and disfunction, and now it appears that the party is in its "rebuilding" stage, where it regroups, gets rid of unnecessary pieces (ahem, Rush Limbaugh), and can come back in another few years roaring and ready to get back to power. I don't believe 2010 or 2012 will be the year to do so, because one factor not acquitted for in the article is President Obama's magnificent campaigning abilities. While I disagree with almost all facets of his agenda, I can't argue that his speeches even make ME feel inspired, let alone wishy-washy independent voters. 2010 will go the way of the Democrats once again, as they will most likely argue that they haven't had enough time to perfect new policies because they were too busy "cleaning up Bush's mess" (for the thousandth time). They will be given the lee-way, as will President Obama in 2012. But the following Presidential election, 2016, I feel will be the time of resurgence for the Republicans. After (my projection) that President Obama won't live up to his potential, 2016 will be the re-ascention of the Republicans in Congress and the Presidency.
I believe that the Democrats are still in the game; however, as the article states there are a lot of 'ifs' regarding the outcome of what they may or may not accomplish. As of right now, the Democrats have the issues of Afghanistan, and Healthcare which seems to be at a stand still. IF the decision is to send more troops into Afghanistan- they may lose the support they once obtained by liberals wanting to get out of war altogether, ALSO, the issue of healthcare and the lack of a public option- something that democrats have been opting for since the nineties, is on the chopping block as unincluded which may result in discouraging loyal democrats. It looks as though the Democrats in Congress as of right now have accomplished very little this far into the Obama presidency- however I feel that the mistrust involved with Republicans outshines the lack of accomplished promises of the Democrats.
I disagree with what Jesse said about how dismal the Republican Party is at this point. The GOP needed this! They needed a period to get back to reality. They needed time to get a McCain presidential race out of the way, they needed time to clear out some of the outdated names and policies of the 70's, 80's, and 90's, and they needed a time to get rid of the parasites like Arlen Spector. Now the GOP is left with an interesting situation as far as where they go from here. They have done a relatively good job (minus the actions of Olympia Snowe) of keeping what I like to call a "small tent". They have cemented themselves at the right with a relitively clear message and have put the right people in charge of delivering that message. Recently the message has been "Obamacare is dangerous and wrong", and guess what?! The American people agree! Can you say town hall meetings? The US is now, and will be for a long time, a center-right nation, and the GOP has nothing to be discouraged about. If anything, the blunders of the current administration and the inability for the massive Democratic majority to agree on anything have helped the GOP's prospects in the comming years. They are going to pick up seats in 2010; that's for sure, but will they be able to pull of a revolution? That remains to be seen. My only hope is that 2012 is the next 1994 and the next Newt Gingrich is Newt Gingrich :).
Jake seems very adament when he states that the GOP has cemented themselves on the right with a clear message. I would have to disagree. My analysis is that the GOP distrusts most reforms in health care, and their reason for this distrust changes every week. They seem to be jumping at every opportunity to crush the health care reforms. Sure, there are things that the GOP has kept constant regarding their anti-health care arguments, but their reasons for this distrust are ever changing. The fact that the GOP can't stick to one argument loses my trust in their arguments.
Each party is only interested in what they want. They dont give a rip about the other party, any of the issues, or the people until they are in office. Once they have control then the party will start to look more closely at the issue. Lately the Democrates have not been listening to their counterpart Republicans and the american people are not happy about this. For an example, a lot of americans will agree that we are in need of a health care reform; however, the Democrates only seem interested in their ideas of health care reform. The Democrates are making a lot of the people on the Republican party very unhappy very quick. I also agree with York and his statements about the GOP
Each party is only interested in what they want. They dont give a rip about the other party, any of the issues, or the people until they are in office. Once they have control then the party will start to look more closely at the issue. Lately the Democrates have not been listening to their counterpart Republicans and the american people are not happy about this. For an example, a lot of americans will agree that we are in need of a health care reform; however, the Democrates only seem interested in their ideas of health care reform. The Democrates are making a lot of the people on the Republican party very unhappy very quick. I also agree with York and his statements about the GOP
These arguments are all well and good, but realistically, what seems to be happening is the Republicans are trying to hold onto power in any way they can, that's all. The Democrats have, and will likely continue to have the majority, but hope shouldn't be lost for the Republicans just yet. Really, the next year must play out, and health care reform is going to be the deciding factor. If the reform is a hit, we'll likely get dems, if not, we'll likely get Republicans, if nothing happens, we get Whigs?
I think that a Democratic majority will still be maintained, but I also think Republicans will gain more seats. The reason any party gains seats in Congress is because people are not happy with the current majority, and I think with Health Care and Afghanistan not really going anywhere, the American people are starting to lose confidence in the Democrats.
Well, it's been quite the odyssey since that dismal day and subsequent nay for TARP.
Thankfully, the recession has gone to be the proverbial kick in the ass for the American psyche. People are now aware of the fact that in a capitalistic system there is no true safety net. Uncle Sam could care less if you can't pay off your home. Losers lose and winners win. Now having seen this first hand, Americans are finally starting to realize the NEED for government in an increasingly interdependent global economy.
The American economy is a lumbering behemoth that will take time to restore to its former glory, if globalism will permit. People are impatient, but it's quite implicit that the active approach to economic problems have shown to at the very least been halted from disintegration.
The middle class, particularly the business-owning upper middle class, are feeling a rare squeeze and since the middle class is the harbinger of society since the end of the industrial revolution, they are also the core of the vote. Ignore the middle class at your own peril as the world has demonstrated many times before.
Just because it's a recession doesn't mean the Dems are forever invulnerable. The much publicized in-fighting goes to show the fractures in the logical force of reform efforts. Democrats can, and have before, screw there chances for a true revival of American democratic values; so long as they stay strong and go to form the future of the American structure.
In fact, America may be beginning it leftward lean as America's power and light fades into the 21st century.
All I can say is, I'm dug in for the cause of social progress, domestic reform, and a return to international cooperation; moves that can restore not only American pride and hope, but also serve as a catalyst for the people of our time to stem the pain that hurts all of us.
There are some amazing generational changes and structure of the system. Thanks Thomas Hobbes, bring the anarchy, but anarchy is merely what states make of it, and I choose to help make something beautiful.
No offense but you're being a media stooge. Pretty sure you hit every Bill O'Reilly "talking point" there.
Republicans' Healthcare Plan
1. Basically, remove any consumer leverage, by turning them all into individual plans.
2. Complain about socialism???
3. Make broad claims about the wonders of tort reform?
How is that a "real" plan? Republicans have NOTHING. Who would vote for such a party that does things like this? They're destroying themselves.
"Obamacare is dangerous and wrong and immoral blahhhh I don't know why, it's just it's against jesus whaaaa *cry* socialism!!!1111oneone"
When one side acts in this way, no wonder they don't have control of our country - and thankfully so. Republicans need to start using logic and reason rather than be demigogic.
I, surprisingly, strongly agree with Klinka. It seems time and time again, Democrats are elected into office when economic times are bad. As of now, I believe the economy is our largest issue and clearly what nearly everyone is concerned about most! Also, austin makes a really good point at the end of his comment/blog that the logic of how a Democrat's tendency to expand social programs and to decrease expenditures seems highly appropriate for the current state we are in.
I think that the prospects for republicans and democrats in 2010 will rely heavily on how the econmy is doing and how some of the government plans are doing as well. If plans that mostly democrats have voted for are working well then more democrats will be elected or re-elected and if not, republicans may be voted into office to try to change the plans that may not be working.
I am going to have to agree with klinka when he says the republican party seems like they are just trying to basically stay afloat with what power they have. But i do believe that in 2010 more republicans will gain seats in congress as more realize the inability to act with such a high majority of democrats.
I think that the Democrats will remain the majority. The economy will influence the prospects for 2010 greatly. Throughout history, the Democrats have been the ones in office during a tough economic time. So, in my oppinion, as long as our nation is going through the recession, the Democrats will be in the majority.
20 comments:
I think that the 2010 Republican and Democratic prospects will be strongly influenced by the economy and how its state before the election. A Democratic majority will be maintained because re-election rates for incumbents often exceed 90%. Another reason for my conclusion was when Gingrich said, referring to rising levels of unemployment, "These guys [conservatives] could easily preside over the [British] Labor Party's 'winter of discontent' in 1979". That may have been the situation with english economy that a conservative rose to power, but in the U.S when the economy is failing we bring in democratic leaders. History also vindicates my claim. As seen in the Great Depression, FDR, a Democrat, entered office and began breathing life back into the economy. Herbert Hoover, Republican, preceded FDR. We are not in a situation as dangerous as the Great Depression,and this is a presidential election, not a congressional election but our economy is suffering and events may play out in a similar manner. Republicans are usually associated with spending and cutting social programs, where as democrats are associated with extending social programs and decreasing expenditures. With that in mind, it appears logical that congress will maintain a democratic majority because of our economy and preceding historical events.
With the perceived state of where the world is right now, Republican prospects are slim at best. Its been empirically proven that when the economy gets rough, the Democrats get in office. 2010 will be no exception. The only reason that the situation now may be different is, as Austin says, we aren't nearly as bad as we were in the depression, as a nation. Add to this whatever "obama factor" you personally believe applies, and republican outlook doesn't look as bad, but is still nowhere near very good.
I agree with prichard that we are no where near as bad as we were in the great depression. Nowever we arn't that far from getting their. Even with the "obama factor" as klinka may have said does help in the public eye because he is not a republician and they believe that because he is a democratic he will automaticly do better. So i believe that they are not as far apart as everyone may think. They are thinking mostly the same thing.2010 will be the same as the other years. Both partys look ok to me, not great but ok for now.
The answer is always the same. Both factions just want control over our minds and lives. No matter who is in control of the government, the people are going to get screwed. Power and control are the motives behind every party's goals. It doesn't matter what year it is, economic cycle, or party that is in power. nothing changes.
I think that since the Congress has been controlled by the Democrats, very little has changed in regards to public policy and the economy. Even though this slow, change-retardant system might be working exactly the way the Framers wanted it to, voters will always be tuned into a candidate who promises rapid change. Democrats have not fomented change quickly enough, maybe Republicans will, is their mindset.
As the article said, liberal skepticism could play a major role in the elections too. With all these broken promises regarding the date of health care reforms being completed and skepticism about the current White House administration, Democrats may face a definite head-wind going into the 2010 elections.
The Republican Party, at this moment, reminds me of the Detroit Lions. Ok, maybe not that bad--more like the Cleveland Browns. Not too far in the distant future there was a glimmer of success, but it faded quickly. Next came a good time of turmoil and disfunction, and now it appears that the party is in its "rebuilding" stage, where it regroups, gets rid of unnecessary pieces (ahem, Rush Limbaugh), and can come back in another few years roaring and ready to get back to power. I don't believe 2010 or 2012 will be the year to do so, because one factor not acquitted for in the article is President Obama's magnificent campaigning abilities. While I disagree with almost all facets of his agenda, I can't argue that his speeches even make ME feel inspired, let alone wishy-washy independent voters. 2010 will go the way of the Democrats once again, as they will most likely argue that they haven't had enough time to perfect new policies because they were too busy "cleaning up Bush's mess" (for the thousandth time). They will be given the lee-way, as will President Obama in 2012. But the following Presidential election, 2016, I feel will be the time of resurgence for the Republicans. After (my projection) that President Obama won't live up to his potential, 2016 will be the re-ascention of the Republicans in Congress and the Presidency.
I believe that the Democrats are still in the game; however, as the article states there are a lot of 'ifs' regarding the outcome of what they may or may not accomplish.
As of right now, the Democrats have the issues of Afghanistan, and Healthcare which seems to be at a stand still. IF the decision is to send more troops into Afghanistan- they may lose the support they once obtained by liberals wanting to get out of war altogether, ALSO, the issue of healthcare and the lack of a public option- something that democrats have been opting for since the nineties, is on the chopping block as unincluded which may result in discouraging loyal democrats.
It looks as though the Democrats in Congress as of right now have accomplished very little this far into the Obama presidency- however I feel that the mistrust involved with Republicans outshines the lack of accomplished promises of the Democrats.
I disagree with what Jesse said about how dismal the Republican Party is at this point. The GOP needed this! They needed a period to get back to reality. They needed time to get a McCain presidential race out of the way, they needed time to clear out some of the outdated names and policies of the 70's, 80's, and 90's, and they needed a time to get rid of the parasites like Arlen Spector. Now the GOP is left with an interesting situation as far as where they go from here. They have done a relatively good job (minus the actions of Olympia Snowe) of keeping what I like to call a "small tent". They have cemented themselves at the right with a relitively clear message and have put the right people in charge of delivering that message. Recently the message has been "Obamacare is dangerous and wrong", and guess what?! The American people agree! Can you say town hall meetings? The US is now, and will be for a long time, a center-right nation, and the GOP has nothing to be discouraged about. If anything, the blunders of the current administration and the inability for the massive Democratic majority to agree on anything have helped the GOP's prospects in the comming years. They are going to pick up seats in 2010; that's for sure, but will they be able to pull of a revolution? That remains to be seen. My only hope is that 2012 is the next 1994 and the next Newt Gingrich is Newt Gingrich :).
Jake seems very adament when he states that the GOP has cemented themselves on the right with a clear message. I would have to disagree. My analysis is that the GOP distrusts most reforms in health care, and their reason for this distrust changes every week. They seem to be jumping at every opportunity to crush the health care reforms. Sure, there are things that the GOP has kept constant regarding their anti-health care arguments, but their reasons for this distrust are ever changing. The fact that the GOP can't stick to one argument loses my trust in their arguments.
Each party is only interested in what they want. They dont give a rip about the other party, any of the issues, or the people until they are in office. Once they have control then the party will start to look more closely at the issue. Lately the Democrates have not been listening to their counterpart Republicans and the american people are not happy about this. For an example, a lot of americans will agree that we are in need of a health care reform; however, the Democrates only seem interested in their ideas of health care reform. The Democrates are making a lot of the people on the Republican party very unhappy very quick.
I also agree with York and his statements about the GOP
Each party is only interested in what they want. They dont give a rip about the other party, any of the issues, or the people until they are in office. Once they have control then the party will start to look more closely at the issue. Lately the Democrates have not been listening to their counterpart Republicans and the american people are not happy about this. For an example, a lot of americans will agree that we are in need of a health care reform; however, the Democrates only seem interested in their ideas of health care reform. The Democrates are making a lot of the people on the Republican party very unhappy very quick.
I also agree with York and his statements about the GOP
These arguments are all well and good, but realistically, what seems to be happening is the Republicans are trying to hold onto power in any way they can, that's all. The Democrats have, and will likely continue to have the majority, but hope shouldn't be lost for the Republicans just yet. Really, the next year must play out, and health care reform is going to be the deciding factor. If the reform is a hit, we'll likely get dems, if not, we'll likely get Republicans, if nothing happens, we get Whigs?
I think that a Democratic majority will still be maintained, but I also think Republicans will gain more seats. The reason any party gains seats in Congress is because people are not happy with the current majority, and I think with Health Care and Afghanistan not really going anywhere, the American people are starting to lose confidence in the Democrats.
Hey Mr. Bretzmann, how's it going?
Well, it's been quite the odyssey since that dismal day and subsequent nay for TARP.
Thankfully, the recession has gone to be the proverbial kick in the ass for the American psyche. People are now aware of the fact that in a capitalistic system there is no true safety net. Uncle Sam could care less if you can't pay off your home. Losers lose and winners win. Now having seen this first hand, Americans are finally starting to realize the NEED for government in an increasingly interdependent global economy.
The American economy is a lumbering behemoth that will take time to restore to its former glory, if globalism will permit. People are impatient, but it's quite implicit that the active approach to economic problems have shown to at the very least been halted from disintegration.
The middle class, particularly the business-owning upper middle class, are feeling a rare squeeze and since the middle class is the harbinger of society since the end of the industrial revolution, they are also the core of the vote. Ignore the middle class at your own peril as the world has demonstrated many times before.
Just because it's a recession doesn't mean the Dems are forever invulnerable. The much publicized in-fighting goes to show the fractures in the logical force of reform efforts. Democrats can, and have before, screw there chances for a true revival of American democratic values; so long as they stay strong and go to form the future of the American structure.
In fact, America may be beginning it leftward lean as America's power and light fades into the 21st century.
All I can say is, I'm dug in for the cause of social progress, domestic reform, and a return to international cooperation; moves that can restore not only American pride and hope, but also serve as a catalyst for the people of our time to stem the pain that hurts all of us.
There are some amazing generational changes and structure of the system. Thanks Thomas Hobbes, bring the anarchy, but anarchy is merely what states make of it, and I choose to help make something beautiful.
jakeK,
No offense but you're being a media stooge. Pretty sure you hit every Bill O'Reilly "talking point" there.
Republicans' Healthcare Plan
1. Basically, remove any consumer leverage, by turning them all into individual plans.
2. Complain about socialism???
3. Make broad claims about the wonders of tort reform?
How is that a "real" plan? Republicans have NOTHING. Who would vote for such a party that does things like this? They're destroying themselves.
"Obamacare is dangerous and wrong and immoral blahhhh I don't know why, it's just it's against jesus whaaaa *cry* socialism!!!1111oneone"
When one side acts in this way, no wonder they don't have control of our country - and thankfully so. Republicans need to start using logic and reason rather than be demigogic.
I, surprisingly, strongly agree with Klinka. It seems time and time again, Democrats are elected into office when economic times are bad. As of now, I believe the economy is our largest issue and clearly what nearly everyone is concerned about most! Also, austin makes a really good point at the end of his comment/blog that the logic of how a Democrat's tendency to expand social programs and to decrease expenditures seems highly appropriate for the current state we are in.
I think that the prospects for republicans and democrats in 2010 will rely heavily on how the econmy is doing and how some of the government plans are doing as well. If plans that mostly democrats have voted for are working well then more democrats will be elected or re-elected and if not, republicans may be voted into office to try to change the plans that may not be working.
I am going to have to agree with klinka when he says the republican party seems like they are just trying to basically stay afloat with what power they have. But i do believe that in 2010 more republicans will gain seats in congress as more realize the inability to act with such a high majority of democrats.
I think that the Democrats will remain the majority. The economy will influence the prospects for 2010 greatly. Throughout history, the Democrats have been the ones in office during a tough economic time. So, in my oppinion, as long as our nation is going through the recession, the Democrats will be in the majority.
Post a Comment