Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Analysis: What does it all mean? Candidates "FREEZE" their efforts.

After a strategy that would have been brilliant if it worked, Rudy Giuliani, "America's Mayor", is expected to end his presidential campaign today and endorse John McCain. Who benefits? Who loses?

After focusing on Iowa and not winning, continuing has campaign, but failing to win a state, John Edwards vowed to fight on to the convention. Today he is expected to drop out of the campaign. Who benefits? Who loses?

Forget the popcorn, get your seatbelt! Here we go...

Things to look forward to:
1. A Giuliani endorsement of John McCain
2. A Rush Limbaugh appearance for McCain?
3. Conservatives rationalize that McCain will be more conservative than Clinton or Obama?
4. A smaller debate field on Wednesday and Thursday night (head to head!)
5. The fight for an Edwards endorsement
6. An opening for Michael Bloomberg to get into the race? (Conservatives don't like McCain, Liberals don't all like Clinton--enter an Independent)?

Saturday, January 26, 2008

This just in . . .

On Friday the Regional Director for the Obama campaign called to talk to me. The call was unsolicited by me and it is the first such call I've received. I've decided to share any contact/involvement information with you that is sent to me. If I'm contacted by other campaigns, I'll share that information with you as well. You can do something with all of it or none of it. It's up to you. I do think that you should get involved in some campaign, some cause, or some movement if you haven't already. IF YOU NEED HELP DOING THAT, PLEASE LET ME KNOW. I'LL HELP FIND THE CORRECT CAUSE FOR YOU: RIGHT, LEFT, OR SMACK DAB IN THE MIDDLE!

Attention all high school civics, government and social studies teachers:

My name is Hy Safran and I am your regional director for Obama for America, Barack Obama's presidential campaign here in Wisconsin.

Senator Obama engages Americans from all backgrounds, political affiliations and age groups and welcomes them to his movement for Change and Progress. Just because most high school students can't vote, does not mean they can't be involved and make a difference in the political process.

As your regional director, it would be my pleasure to welcome the high school students to this great cause. There are many ways for students to get involved from volunteering at home, at school at the state headquarters in Milwaukee and throughout the greater region.
Please forward this information on to your colleagues and of course, to your students.

Phone Banking (Making Calls for Barack)
- Monday --> Friday (3-9)
- Saturday (10-6)
- Sunday (12-9)

Canvassing (Knocking Doors for Barack)
- Feb 1st --> 19th

*Internship positions (which look great on college applications) also exist for students who are truly dedicated to Barack's cause for uniting America.

Obama for Wisconsin State Headquarters: 633 S. Hawley Rd Milwaukee, WI 53214 (just past Miller Park located inside the Milwaukee Union Labor Building)

---Please feel free to contact me by phone or email at any time -- 319/899-8008-- Hy SafranObama for AmericaRegional Field Director, Wisconsin319/899-8008

Analysis: Was the South Carolina Democratic primary a setback for race relations in the U.S.?

An interesting question to consider as you read the chapter on Civil Rights and as Friday marks the beginning of Black History Month.

Unrelated bonus questions:
Who will win in Florida in the GOP primary Tuesday?
What will the outcome mean for Sen. McCain or Mitt Romney?
Will you watch the Republican debate on Wednesday or the Democratic debate on Thursday?
Do you have enough popcorn ready to watch the Super Duper Tuesday returns on February 5?

Also: Take a look at the Nevada Caucus information below.

Saturday, January 19, 2008

No post due this week. Go Review for the EXAM!

The next blog window is January 14-27.

Check out this blog post from MHS Graduate Elliot Anderson an activist in Nevada (complete with photo op with former President Clinton):

My inside man in Nevada says the Dem. caucuses are crazy. He says they are putting a lot of pressure on the people running the caucuses to make sure they are run fairly (he is running the open caucus at the Mirage). He said he actually yelled at Terry McAuliffe (former DNC chair) to make sure former President Bill Clinton had credentials when he entered the caucus for a last minute vote-canvass!

From what CNN is showing, it's a lot more of a raucous caucus than in Iowa.

Why isn't the Obama camp making more of the fact that they won more delegates in Nevada than Clinton did? Why aren't they saying, "Hey, we actually won!" 13-12 delegates.

Maybe the Obama camp is planning ahead for Feb.5 Here's the thought process: If Clinton wins the two biggest states of CA and NY and wins the most delegates, but Obama wins the most states throughout the Midwest and the West, maybe 15 of the 22 states (according to MSNBC's Chuck Todd), he could claim that as a victory. However, if he's harping on the fact that the delegate count is most important, Clinton can come back and say, "Barack, last month you said it was delegates that count the most, not the popular vote/number of states."

So, Feb. 6 Obama says, "Congratulations to Hillary for winning the most delegates, but we're happy we won the most states in a cross-section of the country in the rural areas and the cities and the suburbs. This shows we have what we will need to win in the general election: a broad-based support throughout the country."

Just some thoughts...

Sunday, January 06, 2008

Analysis or Opinion: Dem or GOP Presidential Nominating Process: Your thoughts...

Holy Cow! The excitement. Romney spent millions of dollars in Iowa and didn't win. Huckabee and McCain have ganged up on him to make sure that in addition to losing to Huckabee in Iowa he will lose to McCain in New Hampshire. They must figure he'll get out then and it will be a two-person race (not including Thompson who is from TN who might compete in South Carolina and not incluiding Giuliani's Feb. 5 Super Tuesday strategy of lose all the early states and then win a bunch in the "national primary"). Huckabee got a bump of only 1% in the NH polls, but McCain got about a 4% bump and now leads in NH where Romney was a neighboring governor (and he owns a vacation home there).

Holy Cow! The excitement. Clinton spent a lot of money (and raised a lot of money) and came in third in Iowa. Edwards spent essentially the last six years in Iowa and came in second. An African-American former community organizer from the south side of Chicago won in almost all-White Iowa (98%). Edwards says it's a two-person race now. He says it's a race between the forces of change (Obama, Edwards) and the status quo (Clinton) is over. He actually has called for a debate between just him and Obama! Obama got a bump in the NH polls of 3% and is now tied with Clinton while Edwards trails. Change is the word of the day, week, and year! The amazing thing is that Clinton has been defined as NOT the candidate of change. Who could have predicted that 6 months ago!
(btw: WI Governor Jim Doyle just endorsed Obama as did former presidential candidate Bill Bradley).


P.S. Governor Huckabee has indicated he can't come to MHS next month. Hopefully he doesn't have an "arrogant and bunker mentality." :)